Law of Probability thoughts.
9 2013-08-10 by sessmaru
Now.. Please correct me if i'm wrong but.. According to the law of probability. Anything that COULD happen WILL happen eventually, right? So if aliens were real (personally i believe they are we cant be the ONLY intelligent life in the universe. Goes back to the law of probability) and they were looking at us from millions of light years away, because of space time regocnition and the travel of light/images through space, would they be seeing dinosaurs? If they were, when they started noticing signs of intelligent life, (which would have already been millions of years ago) IF they came to investigate, we would be millions of years more advanced than we are now. Correct..?
26 comments
1 [deleted] 2013-08-10
Just the exact opposite of that, actually. Events with a mathematical probability of 1 (or 100%, if you prefer) are not guaranteed to happen. They're very likely to happen, but as long as it's possible for them not to happen, they might not.
I don't think the "law of probability" (by which I assume you mean statistical mechanics) says anything like what you think it says. One cannot make a case for the existence of space aliens based on mathematics. Just look at the infamous Drake equation to see why: There are too many unknowns. It's not possible to make any predictions when you have no data on which to base those predictions.
I have no idea what you were trying to say with "regocnition", but what you describe cannot happen. First of all, an observer millions of light years away would be well outside the galaxy, and second it's quite impossible to resolve anything as small as an individual planetary system over such a distance, because of the diffraction of light.
The consensus among experts is that nothing describable as "signs of intelligent life" goes back more than a few tens of thousands of years. Anatomically modern humanity only appeared about 200,000 years ago, and it was a long time after that that anything like socialization started to happen.
No, that doesn't follow at all. First of all, it's quite impossible to cross a gulf of millions of light years in anything less than hundreds of billions of years. The universe isn't nearly old enough for anything to have crossed such a distance. And second, the phrase "years more advanced" rests on the assumption that there's such a thing as a linear progression from "less advanced" to "more advanced" over time, which is an idea that appears only in fiction, not anywhere in reality.
1 AnSq 2013-08-10
No, the definition of p=1 is will happen. It's guaranteed. If it's at all possible for it to not happen, then p≠1. In practice though, there are few things with p=1.
Everything else you said was correct though.
1 [deleted] 2013-08-10
Nope. You have your facts quite wrong on this one.
Here's the canonical example: I ask you to pick a real number (not an integer) between one and ten. How many real numbers are there between one and ten? There are infinite real numbers between one and ten. Therefore the probability of your picking any of them is exactly zero. That's math. By your interpretation, that means it's impossible for anybody to pick a real number between one and ten. But you can say "seven and a half" anyway without difficulty.
1 OutOfApplesauce 2013-08-10
Things with a P of 1 will happen. Its a very basic concept, and I don't get how you don't understand that. 100% will happen means there is absolutely no doubt that this will happen. Now if you mean that things we generally consider having a value of one actually have a value of 99.999... (although I don't think you do) then you are right, other wise you are absolutely wrong.
1 [deleted] 2013-08-10
It might be a "very basic concept," but it's simply not true. That's a fundamental misunderstanding of probability. See the above example about picking a real number at random. It's mathematically "impossible" if you interpret probability the way you do, but it's trivial to demonstrate that it's not impossible at all in reality. Hence, your understanding of probability is wrong.
Another point you seem to have missed: 0.999… is exactly equal to 1.
1 OutOfApplesauce 2013-08-10
I'm guessing you really just can't understand this, or are too prideful to admit you're wrong. .99999... is commonly rounded up to 1 but it does necessarily equal one. You can look up any academia source on probability and they will tell you things with a P value of 1 are guaranteed to happen. As someone saod before, there are very few things with a P value of 1, which Is where I'm guessing your misunderstanding is.
So just go to any academic source, or ask a professor if you go to college. Now, if you want to call all that wrong then you are too far gone anyways and its useless to try and help you understand.
1 [deleted] 2013-08-10
No, 0.999… is exactly equal to one. There are many proofs, but here's the one I guess you'll find most clear:
x = 0.999…
10x = 9.999…
10x – x = 9.999… – 0.999…
9x = 9
x = 1
I already showed a layman's explanation of why this is false.
Huh. Well, okay, if that's how you feel at least it'll save us some time. You are entirely free to continue to be wrong.
1 [deleted] 2013-08-10
Quantum mechanics basically expands the law of probability into a seemingly infinite realm of possibility and improbability. The law of probability can also say that something is probably improbable, and science nor math can explain the effects of consciousness on this infinite universe, but they know it does. It is so hard to fathom questions like this when you have gravity, black holes, and quantum energy connecting to a part of reality we have no scientific knowledge of whatsoever? I wonder how people know when a loved one has died without any physical transfer of the info like a phone call or email?
1 sessmaru 2013-08-10
Very well said. Also very true.
0 CBD_ 2013-08-10
Aliens are real, not only is the math indisputable; the evidence is overwhelming. Aliens are real and they have helped us shitton over our course of evolution.
We were genetically manipulated and created about 15000 years ago - now when i say genetically manipulated i mean slightly; we most likely where a native species.
I suggest you start looking up some stuff. Even the Canadian minister of military is saying they are real (all a setup by the NWO ofc --' )
0 sessmaru 2013-08-10
So you're saying we were a primitive species before aliens visited? (pyramids, stone hinge, easter island etc.)
1 no1113 2013-08-10
We're still primitive, my man.
0 CBD_ 2013-08-10
yes I suggest you go to youtube and look up spirit science it will be an easy way of absorbing a lot of info =)
0 sessmaru 2013-08-10
Thank you. (:
0 AnSq 2013-08-10
No it's not.
What evidence?
1 CBD_ 2013-08-10
open your eyes look up to the skies and see
1 AnSq 2013-08-10
It looks like the sky to me. No overwhelming evidence of aliens. What am I supposed to be looking for?
0 CBD_ 2013-08-10
at most places on earth it is quit easy to see a ufo at night. Or you could look up the people in government or military or other that are coming out about the subject.
time to wake up NSA
1 AnSq 2013-08-10
Hm, really? I've never seen one.
And strictly speaking, UFOs do not imply aliens.
0 CBD_ 2013-08-10
well if you by "imply" are referring to "implying" which is giving a most probable variable to the puzzle that the message is, then UFOs do "imply" aliens.
Though it could also be men made ofc; but that "implies" that we either have a shitton of hidden tech the people paid for and don't know about. Or that we worked together with aliens to achieve this tech.
Stop being a puppet and realize we are all one experiencing ourselves.
1 AnSq 2013-08-10
I meant that the existence of unidentified flying objects does not necessitate the existence of aliens (or vice versa).
A UFO doesn't require any "hidden tech" to exist, or any people to be paid off for it. It is only required that it flies and you do not know what it is.
0 CBD_ 2013-08-10
hello NSA
1 AnSq 2013-08-10
I think that is literally the dumbest thing you could have possibly said in this situation.
Explain to me how simple logic and the definition of a term has anything to do with the NSA.
0 CBD_ 2013-08-10
"die" and you'll see
0 TryToMakeSongsHappen 2013-08-10
I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy,