Seeing some chatter about robots taking jobs. Now a UN report. Wonder what the purpose of the narrative is.
3 2017-02-27 by Tunderbar1
Firstly, this is crap. Robots are machines that are built and run by humans. They are only useful where simple tasks can be repetitive, dangerous, etc. They are expensive, so the activity must be cost effective, which makes it non-cost-effective for the most part. Only industries with high value production can afford to invest in robots.
Then we have the fact that it takes a lot of human labor to create, set up, maintain and run these machines. So even if low level unskilled jobs are lost, a sizable number of higher skilled jobs are created.
So.... why is this an issue all of a sudden. I've seen numerous posts in futurology and news. And when the UN chimes in, I can't help but get suspicious about it.
Any ideas what this is leading to?
Edit: LOL. Just saw this:
"•Plans, such as a universal basic income, need to be initiated before this process proliferates and these regions are plunged into even more dire circumstances."
That explains it.
43 comments
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
Yeah, you need to go hang out in /r/futurology if you believe what you just posted.
Robots USED to be the things you describe. They haven't been for a while.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
Link? You gonna support your statements?
I've worked in industry and in IT. I know what robots are and I know what they aren't. Do you?
n/a EricCarver 2017-02-27
he gave you a link to the sub he was referring to.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
And I just looked at that sub. There are several posts on the topic, like I said in my original post.
And there seems to be a concerted effort to scare people with prospects of a jobless future due to robots.
I would be way more concerned about a jobless future due to left wing economic mismanagement of the economies and massive debt to the banks and the Establishment gaining a dictatorial New World Order.
The robots angle is bullshit.
n/a EricCarver 2017-02-27
I don't think the robot thing is BS, but I don't think it will take over everything. Remember, robot systems and other manufacturing systems are expensive. So Robot systems will be used when it is more profitable to automate. But in many instances it may never be cheaper to automate.
Sadly, people just do not see the writing on the wall telling them to upgrade their skillsets. It is a shame.
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
Well, lets start with your definition of "robot".
Is the automatic checkout at the gocery store sufficiently automated for you to consider it a robot that has taken someones job or do you need more moving parts?
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
Yes and no.
It is automation, which isn't exactly taking the world by storm. Most people avoid automatic kiosks. And you still need people to build and maintain them.
n/a DrDougExeter 2017-02-27
The amount of people required to build and maintain them is far fewer than the amount of cashiers that they replace. That's the entire point.
And I don't know where you live, but where I live people definitely do not avoid automatic kiosks. There are hardly any actual cashiers anymore here. Maybe one or two lanes open, then one other person watching over around 10 self check-out machines which get a lot of traffic.
n/a of_mendez 2017-02-27
They want to push for :universal basic income" this is the whole of the goal when they mention machines and jobs, they want to make everybody dependent on the state, it may be inevitable
n/a 4esop 2017-02-27
well with solar power and machines becoming more capable, what is it that people will do eventually? Will we all be repair technicians? I would imagine they will repair themselves... We will be in zoos is my guess, if the machines are so inclined.
n/a of_mendez 2017-02-27
What do people do when they are not working? the queen is not working and she is in a kind of zoo if you want to look at it that way, there will be a sweet point when we have total control and great power we all live like kings and queens and then the machines become smarter and then we die in an efficient way
n/a 4esop 2017-02-27
Nice set up. The story of the takedown could be an epic sci-fi story.
n/a of_mendez 2017-02-27
R/writingprompts is a thing I think about joining often, it may be time to write a small scify story
n/a EricCarver 2017-02-27
Elon Musk I believe was talking recently about the Universal Basic Income.
n/a godiebiel 2017-02-27
Robots aren't necessarily only "machines". The UN report also considered software, algorithms, as "robots". And these are basically "free" (electricity and R&D into creating).
Algos impact in the financial industry is huge (40-60% workforce reduction). Call centers are substituting humans for chatbots. All these "robots" are just code, which once designed only need power (electricity and computational) to run, can be multiplied at almost zero cost.
This is the "robot" revolution that is being talked about....
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
You're talking about automation. You can only automate so much.
Robots are not going to put 2 thirds of the population out of work.
Do you not see the absurdity in that concept?
n/a godiebiel 2017-02-27
Not automation, we are not talking about repetitive tasks, we are talking about "adaptive systems". This is the basis behind machine learning.
White collar jobs amount to 60% employment in most developed countries, these are the jobs under threat by "robots" in the third industrial revolution.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
And I say that that is bs.
n/a godiebiel 2017-02-27
That is probably what the >4 million horses in England alone thought in the early 1900's.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
LOL.
Always amazed by the low quality responses.
n/a DrDougExeter 2017-02-27
You have offered nothing except "it won't happen because I say so". Check you own low quality responses before you criticize others.
n/a DrDougExeter 2017-02-27
I absolutely do not see the absurdity in that concept. It seems like you are looking at this problem the wrong way. Automation will not be designed to fit into current industry workflows. The workflows will be changed to allow for more automation.
Most of the world has simple labor. I do not think it is absurd in any way to see automation cutting out 2/3 of this work.
n/a WTCMolybdenum4753 2017-02-27
Hearing it from numerous sources. Seems a foregone conclusion the bots are taking all the jobs. I find it unsettling and inaccurate. Sources are out there that counter the great robot takeover.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
They're claiming that 2/3rds of all jobs will cease to exist.
Nuts or what?
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
The most common jobs in the United States are retail sales, cashier, and food service.
Many retail stores are closing outlets because they can't compete with Amazon, so retail sales jobs are being lost to Amazon warehouses.
(Check JC pennys, Sears, Macy's closings in the past two years.)
Cashier positions are being replaced by self serve checkout kiosks.
That's roughly 8 million jobs.
Food service is always going to be food service.
Then there is the transport industry. As self driving trucks begin to replace the existing fleets, that's 3.5 million jobs gone.
The US has 120 million people in the workforce and I just took out 10%.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
There has been a shift to online purchasing. Creates jobs in those companies that provide the service and affiliated industries like shipping companies.
It's a nearly zero sum result.
Some will be. Not a very large percentage. Again, someone has to build and service the self serve kiosks. And they aren't exactly taking over. Most people hate them. Few prefer them.
No. No way in hell that all truck drivers will be replaced. So far zero. When we see any truck drivers being replaced by self driving trucks, let me know. Until then it's just vaporware. A figment of your imagination.
Same with self-driving cars. Not even close to general deployment.
Vaporware. Still in very early development. And nowhere near not cost effective. That is what will determine whether or not it is feasible.
No you didn't. All you did was exercise your imagination. Let me know when any actual significant numbers of people start losing work to automation.
To advocate for a exceedingly costly major social and govt shift like universal incomes and basing it on what might possibly happen in the future is ridiculous.
The UN is way out of line with this. Their mandate is to prevent war. They've failed at their one major mandate. WTF are they doing advocating for universal income.
It's time to defund the UN.
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/24/embarks-self-driving-truck-is-ready-to-assist-human-drivers/
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
Jesus, really? McDonalds experimenting with kiosks isn't robots taking over the world.
And some automation to help truck drivers? Hardly replacing them, now is it?
If that is the best you can do, well.... forget it. I'm done.
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
You have provided zero support for your position, but you're "done". cute.
You can live in denial if you like, but like I said, the limiting factor on automated vehichles isn't tech, its legislation.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
The absurdity of the idea that TWO THIRDS of ALL WORKERS on the PLANET will lose their jobs to robots is self evident.
You are deluded.
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
There is nothing self evident about it.
Most jobs are menial. They don't require creative processing, just repetition.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/17/lawyers-could-be-replaced-by-artificial-intelligence.html
Even LAWYERS are being effected by automation... but sure, the workforce is safe.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
No. Many production or manufacturing jobs.
That is not 2/3rds of all jobs. Not even close.
n/a VirulentThoughts 2017-02-27
http://i.imgur.com/BSmMBo3.png
Which ones can't be automated?
n/a DrDougExeter 2017-02-27
go take a walk
n/a DrDougExeter 2017-02-27
Yes, it literally is. It seems that you don't understand this topic at all. If you want to argue semantics of what a robot is, then fine, but you're missing the point entirely. Mass jobs will be lost to automation, machines, robots, computers, whatever the fuck you want to call them.
n/a throogul 2017-02-27
Don't fear the future, you might miss it, goy.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
Wtf does that mean?
n/a bananawhom 2017-02-27
The stupidity explanation: Education systems can't adapt. Rather than training the youth differently and re-training workers for productive work in a more robotic world, they are going to stubbornly stick to the obsolete methods.
The malice explanation: Obsolete workers will become a permanent consumer underclass. They'll get enough welfare or UBI to stay alive and complacent. They'll be kept stupid and discouraged from productivity. Less overall profit, but less competition and an easier economy to control and make sure certain corporations stay on top.
n/a carbcaptain 2017-02-27
I have a bachelor's in Electrical Engineering and spent 3 years working on automation, controls, and robot arms. The robots are taking our jobs thing isn't a meme.
Most of automation is now done by consulting firms that specialize on one area so every project they do is the same. So often times they're using code and cad drawings from old projects and modifying them for the new ones. If a robot arm we install cost the end user $600k(average) and that replaces a guy making $30k(usually they make double this) a year than the robot pays for itself in about 3 years. The robot works 24 hours a day the man works 8. The robot doesn't need benefits,bonuses, or cost any additional tax.
UBI is communism through the back door however. Sorry I don't have a solution, but saying that automation isn't a threat is delusional. The demand for automation/controls engineers is staggering. Go to indeed or any job board and search for controls engineers positions. There's guaranteed to be openings in every city for $80k +
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
Automation is only economically viable in a few industries and in a few processes. And where it displaces lower skill jobs it will replace to some degree with some higher skilled jobs.
No way will 2/3rds of all workers on the planet lose their jobs to robots. Not even close. I'd be surprised if it amounted to more than 1 or 2%.
I think the workforce and the economy will adapt fine tyvm without UBI.
Imagine 2/3rds of all workers on UBI. Think of the ramifications on govt taxation. It is absolutely absurd.
n/a carbcaptain 2017-02-27
In every industry I can think of, if something is being manufactured you can automate it. It only doesn't apply to the service industry.
If 2/3rds of all workers are manufacturing workers they will, I think that's why we are seeing such a huge shift to people working service jobs in the US. After the 2008 recession there was a shift from manufacturering to waiting and bartending.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
Yes most things can be automated, like I said, if you read it again:
Automation is only economically viable in a few industries and in a few processes.
The shift from manufacturing to service was directly connected to Democrat policies that encouraged businesses to move their operations out of the US.
It had zero to do with automation.
n/a carbcaptain 2017-02-27
Economic viability is becoming less of an issue day by day. Look at the cost of PLC processors, or even regular computers over the last decade. PLC Cost has come down faster than laptop computer prices. Fanuk and ABB have a new competitors for their robot arms every day.
The industries which require expensive automation equipment like Allen Bradley's pro logic are the industries where it's economicly viable to make the switch. Industries that can't afford the expensive allen bradley stuff are usually the same industries that can get away using a compact cheap Siemens processor or microcontroller
n/a DrDougExeter 2017-02-27
Absolute bullshit. Automation has already touched practically every single industry in some way. Any industry using computers is already automating away labor, and electronic computers are still very new technology. Our world will be transformed in the coming years by this exponential technological growth in ways you can hardly imagine.
n/a Tunderbar1 2017-02-27
They're claiming that 2/3rds of all jobs will cease to exist.
Nuts or what?