nice work. I posted in your thread earlier about a 5 that someone reported in NZ recently.

always my friend. I hope the same for you too.

Love is amazing, how stupid it makes us act, right? I like how colors seem more colorful when you are with the right person at the right time.

Give it time, live in sin for a while first. :D

I kid. I am glad to see things click for you after some of your trials.

Everyone wants to demand more from me. Im trying to deliver but half what they want is contrary to what I can provide.

How much are they demanding?

Will you be willing to publish your method as a paper? That would make it easier for it to be read and analysed by professionals. Plus you'll get credit and help the world too.

If you have an alma mater try and make a rough draft and contact one of the professors you trust, he/she will help you out. But your method has to be sound.

First time seeing all this and trying to understand it so maybe that's why they're doubting you. It's hard to get on track.

Ok so you're saying the sun's storms could cause earthquakes?

They tried to take out the electric car too. Hang in there mate :)

I found your work intriguing and insightful. Keep it up, and don't stay away for as long as you did. Best to you.

Now there's a conspiracy we can all get behind! 💘

Well done my friend

Keep going! Nice to see more voices of encouragement, even if they're downvoted :)

Wow... this is crazy. Nice job!

Saw ppl doubting you and I thought "day isn't over yet" :)

You're like 2000miles off though...

Indonesia was always included in the original post.

You said

1. It be a lesser chance

2. it'd be a swarm

But the lesser chance one happened(not the higher chance one that was the basis of your post), and it wasn't a swarm.

So you were right about what?

There are earthquakes all the time there, it s the most active earthquake area in the world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed0tGlfJHiY

The place has a lot of earthquakes a lot of the time and a lot are large, this is not new.

There were 498 earthquakes in Indonesia in the past 365 days. The strongest was a 6.7 magnitude 8 months ago. You literally guessed that the rate of earthquakes would remain the same as it has been for a year, and that they would not have their strongest quake of the year. Source: https://earthquaketrack.com/p/indonesia/recent?mag_filter=6

What aspects of the solar data had you choose New Zealand and Indonesia?

Your prediction of a swarm in Indonesia would have been correct for the last 70 five day periods. Since that's a constant, how is it related to solar wind? That seems like it would be a control group. What is your control group for working on your theory?

No, I mean a control group as in picking quakes without solar data as a baseline. Not doubting your efforts, just as a baseline to which you compare results.

Most scientific research is measured against a control group. I was curious if you had one.

It's a lot to learn, no doubt. Something to maybe keep in mind is how you would show success to others. That's what control groups are for. You could, for instance, define something like 10 geographic areas in which to predict earthquakes. For ease of the example, let's say each group has an identical past history of earthquake rates. If each of your predictions identified 1 of those 10 areas, and if, after a significant number of predictions, your success rate greatly exceeds the random success chances, then your model can be easily shown to others as having merit. That's a massive simplification of the process, but that's the general idea. Anyway, again, it's your project and not mind, but something like that would help you gain momentum in working with others.

This is true, but the last >6MM was 3 months ago and this one was within the window of his probability. They're not daily occurrences so he's still closer than random chance it would seem

Keep it up!

Congrats. Saw those haters a few days ago. Keep up the good work.

Fak. Alright, subscribing to ParsingSolFacts.

Apple sauce bitch.

That's the shit! Nice work mate.

lol, Bengkulu is almost 8,500 km away from New Zealand.

In that radius there have been over 60 earthquakes of 6+ magnitude in the past year, literally more than one per week.

The scam show continues ...

The thread specifically outlined indonesia. No additional radius was applied. Stop harassing me- Final warning prior to mods being contacted-

The earthquake you noted in this thread was 8,500 km away from New Zealand, within that radius, 70+ major earthquakes occurred within the past year, more than one per week, or one every 5 days.

Please contact the mods, I've done nothing but provide the statistical background for your so-called predictions.

Your continued insults and harassment are criminal acts. At no point have I ever attempted to scam people. You are willfully breaking the law to prove an unfounded conspiracy.

I don't think you understand the law ...

Funny earthquakes are determinative by probability yet no other thing can influence their creation.

I never said that ... I said that your current methodology is impossible to differentiate from what would be statistically expected.

You refute all evidence I have provided on the contrary.

What evidence have you provided to the contrary?

Your assessment is in no way related to my post. I gave no radius. I gave two percieved locations for percieved activity related to the earths geomagnetic activity.

Yes, and within those points of perceived activity, there are 70+ earthquakes over 6 magnitude per year, basically one every 5 days ...

I am not even asking for money.

Are you claiming you didn't make a thread asking for $600,000 in crowd funding?

I'm not going to degrade to your level and lash out in personal attacks.

Yes, I made an attempt at life progression to crowdsource to to marry my gf and create my model. Are you claiming I don't intend to marry my gf and build a model.

These are two separate issues, not sure why you're crowdsourcing for your marriage in conjunction with your model.

Because I have emails to nasa noaa tesla and predpol as well as telephone records. Records to users programmers and developers that argue differently.

I never said otherwise?

Some posts going back as far as 6 years. So again. Are you willfully harassing me and stalking me? Defaming my project. Attavking my social networks and attempting to derail my process out of anger?

I'm not defaming you, I'm not saying anything libelous ... you don't seem to know what the definition of defamation is.

My delivery theory and practice is all physically outlined. Don't balme me if you dont understand it- nor agree woth what you cant prove dofferently in spite of your best wishes; And stop harassing me on my threads-

I have proven differently, I've demonstrated that within the zone you outlined, there were over 70 earthquakes over 6 magnitude in the past year, one every 5 days. Your claims are as accurate as basic statistical analysis would indicate they should be. They aren't 'predictions', they are simply matching up with what we would expect under the statistical likelihood of an earthquake happening in that region. It's actually up to you to demonstrate that it is something different.

Which is exactly what I am demonstrating. Please show the solar impact had no reputable caustic effect on earth.

It's your job to show that it does.

You've not proved that.

I don't need to, so far you haven't demonstrated that your "predictions" are nothing more than what is statistically expected ...

Therefore its a potential and you have not disproved me.

Of course there is potential, but you have yet to demonstrate such.

What do you think I've been doing all year?

Then why are you unable to do something as simple as provide a statistical analysis of the accuracy of your predictions that fall outside of the expected statistical likelihood?

Here is a professional list of people that disagree- http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/08/can-solar-activity-cause-earthquakes-volcanoes-and-extreme-weather.html

You don't seem to understand that I don't disagree with your premise, I'm saying that you haven't demonstrated it to any degree beyond what one would expect from the statistical likelihood of earthquakes happening in the areas of your predictions. This most recent one demonstrates exactly that.

Btw how about the 7.0 in canada I did. Whats the statistics on that?

Link?

Btw how about the 7.0 in canada I did. Whats the statistics on that?

Again, link?

Yes, and within those points of perceived activity, there were 70+ earthquakes over 6 magnitude in the past year, basically one every 5 days ...

To be completely fair, he named only two specific locations, New Zealand and Indonesia, and neither of those two specific locations have >6MM earthquakes on a weekly basis, nor 70+ per year

6MM earthquakes on a weekly basis, nor 70+ per year

If you want to be completely fair, he said 6.5-7.0, so he didn't even get the magnitude right.

If you want to be completely fair, was also more than 5 days.

If you want to be completely fair, the distance between the points of his "prediction" is around 8,500km, over 1/5th the circumference of the entire globe.

the magnitude was close; he said 6.5 - 7 and it was a 6.4 saying he's wrong is fairly pedantic

the time was very close - only a few hours outside the 120hour window, again, fairly pedantic. Events appear to reliably occur on a waning solar wind, predicting the exact moment is not straight forward.

the distance between the points is indeed 8500km but that's irrelevant. he named two specific points for the event to occur and it occurred at one of them. not between them, not anywhere else, but at one of the named points. you've got to give him that.

A lot of his "science" is "complete junk" for lack of a better description but he does appear to have a better hit rate than random chance would otherwise suggest so while he may not have the mechanics of it all worked out, he's at least found an apparent correlation between two seemingly unrelated phenomena

the magnitude was close; he said 6.5 - 7 and it was a 6.4. saying he's wrong is fairly pedantic

That's the thing about science, it's usually very pedantic ...

the time was very close - only a few hours outside the 120hour window, again, fairly pedantic. Events appear to reliably occur on a waning solar wind, predicting the exact moment is not straight forward.

Again, it fell outside of the predicted window, it doesn't matter by how much, the prediction was actually incorrect.

the distance between the points is indeed 8500km but that's irrelevant. he named two specific points for the event to occur and it occurred at one of them. not between them, not anywhere else, but at one of the named points. you've got to give him that.

The place where it actually happened according to his words had a "lesser Chance" of it happening. In his own post he bolded "6.5 warning newzealand", which never happened.

He is also linking to the China earthquake as if it somehow validates this "prediction", a location over 10,000km away from his "prediction" ...

A lot of his "science" is complete junk for lack of a better description but he does appear to have a better hit rate than random chance would otherwise suggest so while he may not have the mechanics of it all worked out, he's at least found an apparent correlation between two seemingly unrelated phenomena

I'll believe it when it's demonstrated to be anything more than statistical coincidence.

Thank you for being so level headed(more so than I would be) in the face of complete ignorance to the scientific method. You even repeatedly tried to explain how you came about your conclusions by thinking critically and understanding the data available and they just can't understand or accept it.

It was given as a "warning" implying increased likelihood not certainty that it would happen. Most significantly though, he listed two specific locations for the event "A" and "B" and the event occurred at location "B" as named.

The China quake was well outside his parameters so I certainly can not in any way defend his claim that that event was confirmation of his prediction. In fact, if he himself thought about that for a moment he'd realise he can't have it both ways; Either the China quake was the event he predicted or the Indonesia quake was the event but it can't be both. Also China was neither lcoation A or B. Again, much of the "science" he states is provably false highlighting his lack of understanding in many relevant fields, but, he appears to be more accurate than random guessing.

Statistically a >6MM earthquake occurs somewhere on Earth every 3 days (on average) so random guesses would seem to have a pretty decent chance, but being able to name the specific location and time in advance as he has is somewhat remarkable. He's been right on enough occasions to indicate it is not random chance.

Anyone can access the USGS and NOAA data. If you look at many major quake and then refer to NOAA data and you will notice increased solar activity in the days prior. This is a consistent recurring phenomenon. It's not a guarantee of a quake but does seem to indicate that interactions are at play that may trigger a quake on an already stressed faultline. Quakes can and do occur outside of these parameters due to other factors though and solar events do not always trigger fault ruptures.

Also interesting but not neceassrily related, the French "Demeter" satellite) measured a significant increase in ULF emissions over Haiti prior to the 2010 Haiti quake. Now, that doesn't neccessarily relate at all to /u/ParsingSol 's theory, however it does indicate that our understanding of seismic mechanisms is not complete.

It's an interesting theory and he's certainly not the first or only person to notice a correlation. It certainly warrants investigating.

I'm just seeing this "argument" but thank you for the laugh.

Your continued insults and harassment are criminal acts.

lol what???

You are willfully breaking the law to prove an unfounded conspiracy.

Too fucking funny. What law? You think people can't refute your unfounded (what you called it) claims? The internet isn't a bubble to protect your unfounded conspiracy.

Non-Mobile link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberstalking

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I've noticed lots of predictions are in regions of the world that get Earthquakes all the time. Which is not to say he's phony, but it makes it not very impressive when you can roll a die any day of the week in South America or east Asia and an earthquake would probably roll through and change the outcome of the roll.

That's why it's important for him to have metrics for all of his predictions. Not only for distance off from prediction points, missed timing, and completely wrong predictions, but also testing predictions versus other prediction models and randomly generated predictions.

There's been lots of talk about this in the last few posts, but if he's not collecting data like this and setting up rigid criteria for successes and failures, he'll never prove his work and he'll never get better. How can you readjust your models if you don't have data telling you which way your data skews?

I've noticed lots of predictions are in regions of the world that get Earthquakes all the time. Which is not to say he's phony, but it makes it not very impressive when you can roll a die any day of the week in South America or east Asia and an earthquake would probably roll through and change the outcome of the roll.

Take a look at how far away Bengkulu is from New Zealand ... it would literally be more impressive to predict that a 6+ earthquake wouldn't occur in that region in a span of 5 day than predicting it would.

That's why it's important for him to have metrics for all of his predictions. Not only for distance off from prediction points, missed timing, and completely wrong predictions, but also testing predictions versus other prediction models and randomly generated predictions.

There are over 2billion people within the radius of this "prediction" ... I'm not even sure how this kind of system would even be applicable.

There's been lots of talk about this in the last few posts, but if he's not collecting data like this and setting up rigid criteria for successes and failures, he'll never prove his work and he'll never get better. How can you readjust your models if you don't have data telling you which way your data skews?

Exactly.

Keep up the work, you're on to something great here.

Ignore the haters, there are always those that envy those that do great things.

Glad to see you are persevering! Interesting stuff.

A lot of distance between your prediction and the actual earthquake though.

As you get closer to your predicted event, does the data get any stronger? You should be continually looking at the data up to and beyond the date you predict. As the event gets closer, your data should become stronger.

Are you even looking at any of this stuff day by day to see how it changes to get a more accurate prediction?

I immediately thought of your thread when i saw this news

Prediction: There will be a 6+M earthquake near japan within 7 days.

WHy do you always celebrate when you're off? I could easily predict these when I can be off several days, or couple thousand miles or several magnitudes. As you have done in the past. Fuck it, I'll predict some.

5+ in indonesia. Lesser chance in Japan 5+. in next 5 days. Woo lets go.

I'd love to see any of the doubters predict something that well.Go ahead,assholes.Make a prediction as close as u/ParsingSol did and the,and only then,will we believe you that these prediction are easy to make.

There will be three or more earthquakes recorded in Indonesia over the next five days.

Ok,fine.At what level?

The majority in the 4s and 5s. Nothing will exceed 6.5.

u/ParsingSol was off by .1.Make a prediction just as accurate.

He made three predictions: the magnitude of an earthquake in New Zealand, a swarm of earthquakes in Indonesia, and the magnitude of the largest Indonesian quake. So his predictions score as: wrong, correct, and close. So here are my three predictions for the next five days: 3 or more Indonesian quakes, the majority in 4s and 5s, and the largest at 6.0. If my score is also wrong, correct, and close then I think it's safe to say that I scored the same accuracy as he did. Less than that and I did worse, more than that and I did better.

Ok.Let see how your "predictions" play out.If youre wrong will shut the fuck up?

Will do.

The point of the exercise is that if picking probability results in equal or greater results than solar data, then the solar data may not be effective. If probability performs worse than solar data, then it shows merit. Obviously more than one test would need to be done no matter the outcome, but I'll stick to my agreement to STFU about it after the five day period ends. This is just an absolutely basic control group that should be in the experiment in one form or another. You can't demonstrate results without a control comparison. But it's your baby and it's up to you as to how to precisely report effectiveness, including if you even wish to do so.

RemindMe! 5 days "Is this earth quake 'model' full of shit?"

I will be messaging you on 2017-08-18 19:18:21 UTC to remind you of this link.

CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

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Indonesian quakes: 5.5 4 on 8/14 in Abepura, 5.4 on 8/16 in Padang, and 4.7 on on 8/14 in Kep. Tanimbar.

My prediction of 3 or more Indonesian quakes: Correct Majority in 4s and 5s: Correct Largest at 6: Wrong

So I got two corrects and a wrong whereas he got a correct, a close, and a wrong.

https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6n69rj/huge_flash_m11_flare_just_now_earthquakes_inside/dk7bzek/

Democrat apples you say?

Rotten to the core

Keep up the good work!

Good try buddy

I like the humble brag posts after a successful modelling guess! Keep em coming.

Absolutely no /s!

Well done! Hope you can make something more out of this. Look into patent lawyers

Yea I hear you. I wish I had connections for you. Best of luck.

Remind me!7 days

Everyone wants to demand more from me. Im trying to deliver but half what they want is contrary to what I can provide.

How much are they demanding?

The thread specifically outlined indonesia. No additional radius was applied. Stop harassing me- Final warning prior to mods being contacted-

The earthquake you noted in this thread was 8,500 km away from New Zealand, within that radius, 70+ major earthquakes occurred within the past year, more than one per week, or one every 5 days.

Please contact the mods, I've done nothing but provide the statistical background for your so-called predictions.

Your continued insults and harassment are criminal acts. At no point have I ever attempted to scam people. You are willfully breaking the law to prove an unfounded conspiracy.

I don't think you understand the law ...

I'm just seeing this "argument" but thank you for the laugh.

u/ParsingSol was off by .1.Make a prediction just as accurate.

I will be messaging you on 2017-08-18 19:18:21 UTC to remind you of this link.

CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

^{Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.}

Your continued insults and harassment are criminal acts.

lol what???

You are willfully breaking the law to prove an unfounded conspiracy.

Too fucking funny. What law? You think people can't refute your unfounded (what you called it) claims? The internet isn't a bubble to protect your unfounded conspiracy.