This post is a forecast based on the current ace feed found at solarham.net

As well as an assessment of the current earth facing lens. Also available at solarham.net

Hey you have a bunch of trolls in here getting alot of votes. Keep up the good work

God's speed

Lol

Considering you successfully predicted the others, this is very serious.

Is there any evidence of this being manmade?

Many of his past predictions turned out to be false

Is that true u/parsingsol ?

Not really. He is good at predicting magnitude and a timeframe. I don't think his methodology allows for a location though.

Same observation. Still very interesting.

How good? What's his hit rate?

No he’s not. He’s been “right” one time and all he does is give vague and long timeframes and magnitudes. He has a something like a 30% chance of being right about a 6.0+ earthquake every week since they aren’t exactly rare. He makes guesses and keeps track of no data nor whether he’s been right or wrong about predictions.

Incredibly suspicious that the 3 posts you have in this thread have the exact same number of upvotes - almost like you have a few alts?

On through his history. His only posts in this subreddit are on ParsingSol's posts saying he's wrong.

Yeah, that’s a bunch of bullshit. Anyone can go back and see that I’m pretty much a regular on here. Nice try though.

Well that's simply a lie.

So because you happened to catch a point where my comments had the same amount of upvotes, that means I’m using alts? Lol. I know this is a conspiracy sub and I love good conspiracy stuff as much as anyone else, but you really did to get outside a bit if you’re looking for a conspiracy in reddit comments. I’m not even close to being the only one calling out OP for his bullshit.

His model is based on sun activity

Can I get an ELI5?

Earthquake...soon...

....I just felt something...

PROPHET!!! THE PROPHET HAS COME TO....

Oh, nvm, my sister-in-law just got up from her bed.

Zing!

u/ParsingSol uses data about the sun and its spots to predict earthquakes. His theory is that CME's (the sun spitting up powerful waves of energy) hit the earth and cause seismic activity. He's posted a lot of predictions over the years, under some other usernames. He's been wrong sometimes, but he's been eerily correct at others.

Studies have been done to correlate the waves hitting earth and earthquakes, and generally, the consensus it that there's no correlation. This is due to the fact that we have earthquakes when there is no solar activity.

Personally, I think that there is a correlation, just not with every quake. It seems to me to be one of many factors.

He's been wrong sometimes, but he's been eerily correct at others.

Why are you just blatantly lying? He’s been right once out of the hundreds of predictions he’s made. That’s not “sometimes”. That’s literally 99%of the time.

He's been right way more than once..
What reason would I have to 'blatantly lie'?
You're the only one I can see thats blatantly doing anything..

Op is at least on to something. He's right enough to show a correlation, but whatever their method is it's missing... something. They're rarely accurate in location predictions. Seems like there's some steps or factors in the middle they're skipping or haven't accounted for.

How is there even a correlation? You people are seriously underestimating how many earthquakes there are every day/week/year. Even ones 6.0+ are incredibly common and the odds of one happening in any given three day span is fairly high.

The earth averages less than one 8.0 or greater earthquake per year. He predicted an increased chance of a, 8.0 or greater quake a few weeks ago. What are the odds of that?

He’s been predicting 8.0+ earthquakes for months prior to that and was wrong. You can’t just predict something over and over and then say you’re right when you coincidentally hit one, especially when you’ve been wrong a bunch of times before. That earthquake also occurred outside of his timeframe and on the other side of the globe than he predicted.

solar activity INCREASES the chances of an earthquake, it doesn't cause them.

pretty simple concept here folks

Yeah sounds about right. But I'm sure factoring that into currently used earthquake prediction models could help increase the accuracy of predictions. I mean like, op is no genius, but he's at least gotta be onto something.

What is the percentage of earthquakes that happen during solar activity vs earthquakes that happen at other times?

If you want I can find the article, but someone did the math on it. When sun spots show up sun activity increases, and when the spots go away sun activity decreases. So we should see earthquake numbers get affected by that up and down pattern. We don't though. We see no correlation between solar flare activity and earthquakes in regards to intensity, duration, or quantity.

Yeah, I saw the same on NOAA's site.

I'm not sure, that's why more research is needed. I'd like to see someone list out major earthquakes (say 7.0+) over the last few decades and line that up with earth facing major flares and see what comes of it.

Please, point out the times he was right. I’ll wait. I’ve asked this before and received no response from neither the person I asked or OP. Why doesn’t OP keep a record of his predictions and how many times he was right? If he has, why not show people to prove his critics wrong?

The only time he was right was with the 8.0M earthquake in Mexico two weeks ago.

Except he made multiple predictions like that before and was wrong and he even said in the comment thread that his best guess was Japan, so how right was he exactly?

Well, 8.0 magnitude earthquakes happen on average once per year. Even if he did spent 3 weeks suggesting it will happen, he only had a 1:17 chance of being right. You cannot have a high degree of confidence, as the data sample is 1, and it could simply be a lucky guess and not at all influenced by what ParsingSol suggests generates earthquakes. That said, he still had made a prediction that had a higher chance of being true than random chance.

You know, as opposed to him predicting that something that happens with an average of 3:1 chance, will happen, like this and all of his other threads.

Regarding people saying that he has provided his formula, data and methodology in the past, no he hasn't. Alot of people, me included, have volunteered to help him, but I am not aware of anyone receiving a reply.

Well, 8.0 magnitude earthquakes happen on average once per year. Even if he did spent 3 weeks suggesting it will happen, he only had a 1:17 chance of being right. You cannot have a high degree of confidence, as the data sample is 1, and it could simply be a lucky guess and not at all influenced by what ParsingSol suggests generates earthquakes. That said, he still had made a prediction that had a higher chance of being true than random chance.

He made predictions just like that before and nothing happened. The earthquake also happened outside of his timeframe and in the completely wrong location. His “best guess” (those were his words in that thread) was that it would happen in Japan.

I’m not going to be impressed by someone finally hitting a predictions when they were wrong before and when they didn’t even hit on it in the first place.

Regarding people saying that he has provided his formula, data and methodology in the past, no he hasn't. Alot of people, me included, have volunteered to help him, but I am not aware of anyone receiving a reply.

That’s what’s annoying me the most, and I’m being called a troll and a shill for asking for more info. I want to see his methods and data and also want to see a chart/database/whatever that shows all of his predictions and how many times he hit and miss. Anyone doing research like that should keep a record if they’re serious about it. The complete lack of information is what bothers me.

I was curious, so I looked back at his prior predictions. He has been calling for an 8.0 nearly continuously since his very first post 3 months ago.

Please, point out the times he was right. I’ll wait.

He predicted 7+ a year ago. I saved one of his last year's posts from Nov 16 (deleted account GlobalHell):

https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/5dal9j/75_90_within_48_hours_likely_soon_11161118/

Except he says in the comments that the earthquake happened “several hours” after his timeframe (which, knowing him, could mean a full day) and the magnitude was 0.1 off of his predictions, which means it was a 7.4 when he predicted a 7.5-9.0(which is a laughably huge scale). Why are we counting his “close enough” predictions as him being right?

He's just LARPing for attention

Jesus buddy you have a chip on your shoulder, did OP wrong you or something?

I personally have read over OPs method in a post he made a long time ago, i do not expect him to repost his method with each warning post he makes. He has a reputation around here - people know he is legit.

Look through his post history or ASK him to post his method you filthy troll.

Yeah, I’m a troll for pointing out facts about OP. Right, that makes sense.

Just because he has a “method” doesn’t mean he’s using it right nor does it mean it’s even accurate. What are his credentials? Not saying he needs a degree, but what’s his experience in scientific fields? What is your experience to say that his methods are good?

I’m simply pointing out that that he makes vague predictions within time frames where the odds of an earthquake the size he’s predicting is all but likely.

What are his credentials? Not saying he needs a degree, but what’s his experience in scientific fields? What is your experience to say that his methods are good?

That is a big contradiction there mate. Ask for credentials, say he doesn't need credentials, ask for credentials.

I’m simply pointing out that that he makes vague predictions within time frames where the odds of an earthquake the size he’s predicting is all but likely.

I would have had not the slightest clue that such an earthquake would have been likely, where do you pull your information from?

That is a big contradiction there mate. Ask for credentials, say he doesn't need credentials, ask for credentials.

How is that a contradiction? Do me a favor. Go look up the definition of credentials and tell me if it specifies a degree. I’m asking what his background in science is, what is expertise are, how much experience he has with earthquakes. Those kinds of things that an amateur could, in fact, gain through years of work. You don’t need a degree, but you damn roll better have some kind of background in order to be taken seriously.

I would have had not the slightest clue that such an earthquake would have been likely, who tipped you off? and how?

Gee, why am I not surprised at all that you wouldn’t have the slightest clue?

You do realize there are well over 100 6.0-6.9 earthquakes around the world every year, right? That comes straight from the USGS.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/stats.php

That means that last year, there were an average of 2.5 earthquakes that were in the 6.0-6.9 range every week. If someone were to make a prediction over even a three day span, the odds of them being right are fairly high since the odds of being right in any given seven day span is very high.

If he is full of shit - prove it? - we won't refute genuine proof.

You mean the fact that he’s been wrong countless times before isn’t proof enough? What about the times where he literally ignores that his location was way off and just says “well, we need to work on that, but the magnitude was right!”? Or the fact that he ignores the timeframe completely and counts earthquakes outside of that timeframe as correct like he did last time?

I want to see the data he’s collected and if he’s for real, that shouldn’t be a hard task for him to do. He needs to show how accurate he’s been. He should have that all recorded if he’s serious about this, right? So where’s all the data in an easy to read table? Anyone could put together an excel document to show it.

I asked him the same question, and said “I’m not a spreadsheet kind of guy.” He says he has been doing this for six years, but the only data he has is the one with his current account going back just a few months. Deleted his prior account without preserving any of those predictions.

Its the same shit that fortune tellers have been using for years.

He makes vague predictions on location, date and magnitude. He allows for wiggle room when defining a "hit", that is, if he predicts a 7.0+ quake and a 5.0 quake happens but the location and date match up, that's a hit. He discards the the complete misses and only keeps the "hits".

Using the same technique, I predict that in the first 6 months of 2018, an underdog sports team will defy the odds and beat an elite team.

i do not expect him to repost his method with each warning post he makes.

Where has he ever posted an actual, verifiable, follow-able method?

I don't care enough to search through his entire comment history, but i do recall reading into the intricacies of his method.

/u/parsinsol can you help out here?

He's already stated he won't release his model and he doesn't keep track of his correct or wrong predictions.

Bullshit. If his model was remotely accurate he could enter past solar data and see if it matches actual earthquake activity. He refuses to address why he won't do this.

?

That data is actively being processed via /r/parsingsol

If I can jump in, I thought OP was wrong, but well intentioned. I gave him some suggestions as to how to better present his data - specifically to use a control group of statistically expected earthquakes to compare against. Then he posted a GoFundMe asking for $600,000 to buy a house because it would help him with his research, and I realized that he was literally trying to scam people. I think the fundraiser changed a lot of people’s attitudes towards him.

I don't think it's too much to ask that a link to his original method post be included when he makes predictions, especially if he does this a lot. That way ppl like me, who haven't seen this before, can get where this prediction is coming from.

Its in my sub /r/parsingsol

Thanks for the great explanation!

There is a guy in Mexico who did predict the earthquake, he is also predicting major earthquakes from now till the 25th in other parts of the world. His name is Alex Backman and has lots of youtube videos.

Please list the parts of the world he gussed

Wow. Predicting an earthquake somewhere around the world in the next week or so. Spoopy!

Considering how many detectable quakes happen every day, this prediction is clearly just guessing at quakes happening in high seismic activity areas. Fuck, if you asked any joe schmoe on the street if they thought after the recent batch of quakes, do they feel like it's more likely for another large quake to follow soon, they'd say yes.

Here's one of many quake tracking websites for reference: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

I am expecting an earthquake under these circumstances but the conditions aren't great to produce one. There basically appears to be a potential window yet, time will tell?

^ this is one of the most meaningless statements. How can any of you take this seriously?

remindme! 72 hours

I will be messaging you on 2017-09-25 03:53:08 UTC to remind you of this link.

CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

^{Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.}

Hahahahah what ludicrously vague "prediction".

Wanna ask for money again?

Omg, how can you expect him to post to reddit when nobody has donated enough money for him to buy a house!

Dude just stop. You give out no data with these posts, never explain your methods, and you make predictions that are over long periods of time and multiple locations as well as vague magnitudes to increase your chances of hitting the jackpot. And then you conveniently say you’ll be “offline” when people will criticize you if you’re wrong.

How many 8.0 or greater earthquakes happen per year on this planet?

There’s about one or two every year and has been for about 20 years now. But why even bring that up when he was wrong about that prediction? He said it’d hit Japan and that it would happen within seven days of his predictions which it didn’t. It happened two days after his timeframe. So are we just going to let those two facts slip?

you're missing the main point of what he's doing. He's saying solar activity INCREASES the likelihood of an EQ, it doesn't cause them. He also doesn't predict locations unless pressed and obviously he's going to name the main BIG earthquake locations where those normally occur.

I don't know about you, but if I lived in an area prone to big quakes and someone had a theory about predicting them...even a 1% chance...i'd want to know about it. I'm not sure why people have to be so overly critical of new ideas, makes no sense to me, especially if it can eventually save lives

And where’s his evidence that it increases the liklihood?

There were 130 6.0-6.9 earthquakes last year. Given your seven day period, it seems obvious there will most likely be 1-3 earthquakes of that size in the next seven days.

This.

/u/parsingsol, get more specific, or don't bother. If you can predict larger, more rare earthquakes with any consistency or accuracy above a random guesser, you'll have our attention

Yeah, maybe earthquakes are chaotic and cannot be predicted.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Not to mention he picked all locations near or on The Ring of Fire. Like shit dude, of course there’s great odds it’s going to occur.

Vague sciencey sounding mumbo jumbo? Check

Broad prediction? Check

Plausible deniability by saying it might not happen? Check

Typical Paringsol

Not understanding what /u/parsingsol is trying to accomplish - check

$600,000 on gofundme for a house wasn't it?

Mexico, Chile, Japan, or Turkey, eh? You know the Thailand Express passes through all of those on its way to Bangcock, right? (very obscure Rush joke)

Ya mexico http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2017/09/23/New-6-2-magnitude-earthquake-strikes-southern-Mexico.html

One out of four ain't bad..?

I predict tomorrow: the US, New Zealand, South East Asia, and the northern hemisphere.

23/09 is tomorrow... Just to throw that into the mix.

Given the wording of this post, can anyone identify from it the exact conditions under which OP could be shown to be incorrect?

Is this prediction cancelled?

With regards to nothing happening, he said: "As earth dwindles back towards its more normal / relevant holding speeds... (and as the breach closes). It may not get there though because were currently in a coronal hole stream which may keep the levels elevated too much to produce a seismic event."

He didn't specify any metrics for this, so right now he has set himself up as the sole arbiter of if this criteria is met.

One out of four ain't bad..?

I predict tomorrow: the US, New Zealand, South East Asia, and the northern hemisphere.