Sunspot 2684 Produced a moderate CME, with a slight earth directed component. Likely a 7.0 EQ
47 2017-10-18 by ParsingSol
Estimated M-5 Flare Today With potential for a 'non-earth directed' CME. Update 10/18/2017 CME CONFIRMED W SLIGHT EARTH DIRECTED COMPONENT.
[Via Solarham.net] October 18, 2017 @ 09:30 UTC
Large CME Observed
A nice coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible on Wednesday morning in the latest coronagraph imagery. The source appears to be a filament eruption behind the east limb. Because this is a farsided event, it will be directed away from Earth. Image below by LASCO C2.
This event today will likely not produce any harrowing / seismic events...
This event will likely induce a 7.0- event in the coming week.
Still Noting:
The incoming sunspot 2684 should be closely monitored this week for any additional flares, or cme's; (As it makes its way across the solar lens)
Its also following a significant coronal hole stream. CH36 As seen on AIA211B.
The additional solar intensity coming from this coronal holes stream, places earth in a more sensitive position. (in terms of future incoming cme's from 2684), So any events given M-class 5, or above range, should be given a slight multiplier of reaction in our coming weeks forecast.
more so a heads up to those curious. Hoping to see some events which indicate higher than mag 7.0 Seismic range.
(Time has told!)
UPDATE CME WAS MASSIVE
Should be a pretty solid solar wind stream brushing upon earth over the next 6 days. As the region makes its way into an earth directed position, I may revise this initial assessment. (adding to the estimated events seismic portfolio). This is really early and this is not much induction via a Fully earth facing model.
KK. Cheers. Ps. Did you read my last post on bitcoin? Hope so! I would very carefully...
16 comments
1 axolotl_peyotl 2017-10-18
Thanks m8...
Just a head's up...the world's largest earthquake drill takes place tomorrow in California. Supposedly 10 million people are participating...
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-18
My Location of choice would likely be Mexico City...
Its aftershocks are currently appearing to be following the solar cme sequences...
There are only a few areas that a 7.0 would strike imho...
Chile
New Zealand
Japan
Philippians
Nepal
Turkey
I'd pretty much rate their EQ potential and significance in that order by their assessed likelihood. (Top to bottom).
Its been awhile since Chile has seen a good quake imo...
1 BransonBombshell 2017-10-18
That's awesome. I was going to say I'll be keeping my eyes on the sky this week, but I guess I should be keeping my eyes on the earth in case of a big quake.
1 Globie2017 2017-10-18
Get a trampoline. If you can jump high enough, you will not be affected by the earthquake.
1 Phantom-Space-Man 2017-10-18
Obviously you've never been double bounced before
1 frankthecrank1 2017-10-18
Have you seen the posts by Giza Death Star lately about solar activity and earthquakes?
https://gizadeathstar.com/2017/10/earthquakes-and-the-sun/
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-18
Its stretching outside what I am basically attempting. but is an otherwise good read :)
1 todayempiretomsashes 2017-10-18
A CME can have the same effect on the earth as an EMP correct? With all this talk of NK having nukes capable... anyone see the possibility that a CME hits the North America, US blames NK and they get their war?
1 whitenoisegarbling 2017-10-18
If not a CME, some sort of solar event can absolutely do that. We had one back in the 19th century that fried a huge chunk of the telegraph network. It's estimated that if such an event had happened today the damages would be calculable in the tens of trillions iirc.
There's also some speculation that a large scale brownout back in the 80's/90's(can't remember date) in Canada was the result of a more modest solar flare overloading a bunch of important power lines. The potential for something much larger than a brownout is always on the table though. Supposedly a really big one hits the planet every ~150 years or so and we haven't been hit by a 150 year flare in a bit over 150 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 Interestingly, wikipedia claims a 'Carrington class' solar flare was actually generated in 2012 of all years, but we managed to avoid it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012
1 ParsingSol 2017-10-18
It would be really hard to hide a cme that big from the public, prior to causing a war. A flare can reach earth in some 8 minutes +/- However unless global communications and electronics abroad were to suddenly stop. Humans would pass the knowledge of the flare onto the usa prior to a war occurring...
Also its likely safe to say that even if the usa were hit; Many commercial and industrial systems would remain operational. Including dams, and power plants. (Which would considerably help with our disaster mitigation efforts).
The worst problems would likely be: fires caused by circuits breaking, and high profile events such as meltdowns. There are chemicals that breakdown without proper atmospheres, as well as food supply shortages and societal break down. I.e. robberies, fear and pandemic phases.
That's my thoughts. I think it would be a war time scenario, and a good time for an enemy nation to strike; But the problems it would bestow on the globe itself may make ww3 pail by comparison. Leading to more effective roles of future international collaboration in that regard..
Ergo earth is really just our space ship. Thus an interstellar attack by the sun itself may equate to a world peace / and ultimately apocalyptic scenario in itself.
But that all really just depends on the veracity of it all. If that makes sense ;)
1 [deleted] 2017-10-18
[removed]
1 axolotl_peyotl 2017-10-18
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I recommend contacting the admins ASAP...good luck!
1 stayingontask 2017-10-18
Remindme! 1 week
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1 stayingontask 2017-10-18
This stuff is so interesting, thanks for posting!