Amazing comment by f_a_k_g_n describing the shift in /r/conspiracy's political alignment.

17  2018-03-25 by RMFN

There's no question this sub's politics changes every now and then.

In the run up to the election, a large portion of the sub supported Donald Trump. That changed practically overnight in January 2017.

One way to see that is to look at average comment scores over time. Awhile ago, I did a comparison of the overlap between r/conspiracy and the_donald. I've seen lots of people say this is "TD 2.0" so I thought it would be interesting to compare.

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Here's a chart showing the average submissions scores over time: https://i.imgur.com/gmEpN1q.png

The Index is the TD average minus the non-TD average.

There's not much that stands out. After the Republican primary, the average submission score of a "TD user" increased more than a "non-TD user"

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Here's the same thing but for comment scores: https://i.imgur.com/K16aXLL.png

Average comment scores for Non-TD posters went up significantly after January 2017. Comments flipped from having a slight TD bias to having a slight Non-TD bias.

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I did the same thing for TMOR vs conspiracy. Here's the comment averages: https://i.imgur.com/rC3OJ3K.png

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There's a handful of theories I think could explain why there has been a shift in the userbase, such as:

  1. "TD users" have left. Banned or just not interested anymore, I don't know why but the percent of TD users is now back to pre-2016 levels

  2. There's an influx of new users who want to discuss conspiracies surrounding Russia and President Trump. That includes temporary surges like when a link is cross posted from r/politics.

  3. Increase in links from meta subreddits like TMOR and their growing userbase. https://i.imgur.com/xB0EoGk.png

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If you're interested in how I defined "TD users" and the (spaghetti) code I used, I have a post with more details here

If you see any mistakes or have constructive criticism, please let me know.

Thank you /u/f_a_k_g_n for pitting this together.

38 comments

I think when people say that /r/conspiracy is /r/the_donald 2.0, they're not just talking about the userbase, but the mod team, which is surprisingly pro-Trump. A lot of the tone of the sub can be traced back to the tone the mods set.

yeah I honestly think the user base kinda fits across the board but if you look at things like:

  • certain threads being put into contest mode

  • the dossier being tagged in away that dismissed it as conjecture

  • things like the Skripar post making an argument that it might not have been Russia being stickied for about a week

  • the use of the conclave to pick mods, establish than idea that certain regulars are “core users of the sub” who just so happen to have similar beliefs

  • an ex-mod who got removed arguing for a “persona non grata” rule in said sub, with those lessons commuting the offense of being liberal and liking conspiracies

  • certain people getting more leeway regarding rule violations than others

  • mods making grandstanding posts of a political nature that promotes belief in certain conspiracies skepticism of certain other conspiracies

you can see how people think the mod team on this sub wants to influence things a certain way. That being said the mod team has a difficult job, a lot of them are very fair, things like the SS rule have really cleaned up the sub. But, in my opinion, the mod team is not an agenda free place

How do any of those bullets support the suggestion that “the mod team supports Trump?”

By the way, the threads were put in contest mode because they were clearly being brigaded. How do you suggest the sub deals with astroturfing?

Someone has been trying to conflate /r/conspiracy with /r/T_D for a while now. You see new accounts say it over and over and over again. You see old accounts ,with suspiciously erased histories, say it over and over again. If a lie is repeated enough then people will think it is true.

I don't know who is pushing this narrative but it is about as natural as the the shuttering of /r/s4p .

Isn’t that the truth. I’ve even seen it pushed in other shill subs like r/politics too

Defaulting threads into contest mode has been suggested about 5000 times already. Maybe also not having a weekly “I’m being bullied by tmor” thread since that clearly only antagonizes other subs.

surprisingly pro-trump

Can this at all be quantified? I see it here all the time and nobody can actually point to specific things.

well there are now alot of users from r/politics brigading, so "that side" always says stuff like this

And they'll cite teo examples from 2016 (Fly's 'invite to TD' post and a post flaired for being Possibly Misleading) and ignore the fact that we've added two rounds of mods ans actually ousted 3 pro-trump ones in the same time.

As always - things tend to be inverted when you actually look at them.

in 2016, I was watching both sides closely and predicted trump would win. One thing that was fascinating to me was watching T-D'ers organically discussing conspiracies as possibilities and as coming true, like the polls lying, deepstate, MSM bias, Operation Mockingbird, etc.

I did see Fly's eventual invitation, however, prior to that I saw dozens of times posters there say stuff like, "Damn, r/conspiracy was right all along," and that was bringing in a shitload of users here.

At the same time, Alex Jones was pumping up Trump, and he is a conspiracy theorist (hold off for a sec on whether or not he's a psy op argument) and the T_D'ers starting listening to Alex's show daily, as if scripture, and his listenership skyrocketed, which also created a feedback loop of them all coming here.

My theory is, even if Fly didn't put out the roll call, the whole flood would have still happened

in 2016, I was watching both sides closely and predicted trump would win. One thing that was fascinating to me was watching T-D'ers organically discussing conspiracies as possibilities and as coming true, like the polls lying, deepstate, MSM bias, Operation Mockingbird, etc.

Yep. It's why I post there and keep an eye on them. They are Conspiracy Theorists too, mostly (and to a degre

I did see Fly's eventual invitation,

It wasn't. It was a reminder to play by our rules.

however, prior to that I saw dozens of times posters there say stuff like, "Damn, r/conspiracy was right all along," and that was bringing in a shitload of users here.

Yep.

At the same time, Alex Jones was pumping up Trump, and he is a conspiracy theorist (hold off for a sec on whether or not he's a psy op argument)

Doesn't matter.

and the T_D'ers starting listening to Alex's show daily, as if scripture,

[Citation Required]

and his listenership skyrocketed, which also created a feedback loop of them all coming here.

Sure.

My theory is, even if Fly didn't put out the roll call,

Which it wasn't.

the whole flood would have still happened

Yep.

[Citation Required]

Go to T_D and search infowars.com, filter by date, and you'l see instances early on of them being mentioned. It's literally a meme there now.

Any post about the Clinton's (within the first 10 top replies) will always have a reminder that "Bill Clinton is a Rapist." and the next reply is infowars.com that's the meme

That alone brings a ton of T_D'ers to Alex

[Citation Required]

Go to T_D and search infowars.com, filter by date, and you'l see instances early on of them being mentioned. It's literally a meme there now.

Yeah. Its a meme. BillClintonisarapistinfowars.com.

Does that mean what you said?

Any post about the Clinton's (within the first 10 top replies) will always have a reminder that "Bill Clinton is a Rapist." and the next reply is infowars.com that's the meme

I know.

Does that mean what you said?

I'm lost now, lol

So they meme about AJ. How does that advance the argument that /r/conspiracy mods are Pro Trump?

Oh, that! Well personally I don't know which mods are or aren't pro-trump. I would think that perhaps there is a liberal bias with the mods, but that some are trump supporters, and maybe some centrists.

Don't matter to me as long as the Sub is fair and transparent. However we are in civil war here via r/politics/shareblue, t-more, and T_D

Their post history is one click away on the right of this page.

Yeah

It's weird how people say this sub is T_D 2.0 yet anything critical of Obama, Hillary, Antifa, CNN, Soros, ShareBlue, Democrats, /r/politicd etc is downvote brigaded and attacked meanwhile any posts or comments critical of Trump/Russia/T_D etc are always upvoted. Even i this thread.

Seems odd how those "Russian bots" or "T_D users/mods" vote against their interests. Also odd how most top posts on this sub the past few months are crossposts from various /r/politics spam subs

Almost no one here is actually pro-Trump. It's just an bunch of edgy former Bernie bros trying to rile up liberals by supporting an idiot. I hate pot smokers, hate gamers and love war. I voted Trump because I genuinely believe in what the Republican Party has always stood for. Most of the idiots here are just Paultards, Libertarians, and whatever the hell else "conservative" potheads are calling themselves nowadays.

This is definitely noticeable. Maybe the peyote the coyote episode and other mod drama was part of it since they were clearly a paid operative running disinfo here.

I don't think 45they45 have left so much as they just stopped posting their shit for a few reasons...

their donald fetish is subsiding as they realize they've been conned, possibly more so than other Americans. T_D is a frothing mess of second thoughts and regret. They are disillusioned as trump continues to shit all over everything. they, including donald himself, blame pelosi and 'the dems' for the latest budget, when he personally signed the bill into law after his lame veto threat.

It's all coming down and they know it so even a conspiracy board can't offer them a place to hide since their orange god is at the very top of it. When it all collapses and he goes down it will be one giant shitshow.

Removed. Rule 10.

Ok

why does this even matter if the users on this sub are also visiting TD?

Reddit admins hate TD and primarily push MSM propaganda; coincidentally the TMOR-type mobs and MSM talking point vote bots seem to have an identical agenda. I think that's why it might matter.

For the same reason people get called out for visiting /politics: The culture in both of those subs thrives on echo-chambering.

There's likely a bit of history to it as well. TD leapt onto the scene as a highly motivated user-base that was brazenly good at manipulating the voting system (doing a pretty effective job of trolling the liberal-leaning users of reddit along the way), and when they started coming over here (the whole Flytape saga) this made some of the more politically neutral users here nervous that they would take over the sub.

These days, the /politics and TMoR crowds seem to be getting more brazen and effective here. Political conspiracies are thus increasingly framed in tribal, partisan terms, frustrating, I suspect, TD-leaning users and politics / TMoR users alike.

The sub is increasingly--almost exclusively, some would say--a backwater battleground for partisan manipulation and outrage.

I've been here every day for 5 years. This sub is transitioning into r/politics2.0 or r/MSN2.0 all else is propaganda. The take over is completed.

Don't believe me? Find something positive Trump did against the one world government agenda and make a post about it. See how far that goes. Just do it as a social experiment.

Show me something positive Trump has done against the "one world agenda" and I'll post it here

TPP was opposed by both ruling party candidates and stood to empower small nations.

Your second link doesn't point to anything Trump has done.

TPP was opposed by both ruling party candidates and stood to empower small nations.

Really? https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-trade-deal-229381

Your second link doesn't point to anything Trump has done.

So you are saying Trump is for open boarders? That's just lame.

So you think a post titled say "Donald Trump is against Open Borders" isn't going to do well on this sub because of /r/politics shills?

His second link talks about Bush because it is from 2006. That was back when Trump was banging Stormy lol

  1. He did stop the TPP, I am not sure why that would be considered "/r/conspiracy material." What is the conspiracy?

  2. An article from 2006 talking about George Soros wanting open borders...also not something that would be considered a conspiracy.

It's no wonder either of these articles would be ignored as neither of them are conspiracies...

That's because he hasn't done jack shit.

It changed in 17 because we finally got rid of those trumpets. They were, and currently are, the ones ruining this sub.

wrong

yeah I honestly think the user base kinda fits across the board but if you look at things like:

  • certain threads being put into contest mode

  • the dossier being tagged in away that dismissed it as conjecture

  • things like the Skripar post making an argument that it might not have been Russia being stickied for about a week

  • the use of the conclave to pick mods, establish than idea that certain regulars are “core users of the sub” who just so happen to have similar beliefs

  • an ex-mod who got removed arguing for a “persona non grata” rule in said sub, with those lessons commuting the offense of being liberal and liking conspiracies

  • certain people getting more leeway regarding rule violations than others

  • mods making grandstanding posts of a political nature that promotes belief in certain conspiracies skepticism of certain other conspiracies

you can see how people think the mod team on this sub wants to influence things a certain way. That being said the mod team has a difficult job, a lot of them are very fair, things like the SS rule have really cleaned up the sub. But, in my opinion, the mod team is not an agenda free place

surprisingly pro-trump

Can this at all be quantified? I see it here all the time and nobody can actually point to specific things.

well there are now alot of users from r/politics brigading, so "that side" always says stuff like this

And they'll cite teo examples from 2016 (Fly's 'invite to TD' post and a post flaired for being Possibly Misleading) and ignore the fact that we've added two rounds of mods ans actually ousted 3 pro-trump ones in the same time.

As always - things tend to be inverted when you actually look at them.

Their post history is one click away on the right of this page.

Yeah

It's weird how people say this sub is T_D 2.0 yet anything critical of Obama, Hillary, Antifa, CNN, Soros, ShareBlue, Democrats, /r/politicd etc is downvote brigaded and attacked meanwhile any posts or comments critical of Trump/Russia/T_D etc are always upvoted. Even i this thread.

Seems odd how those "Russian bots" or "T_D users/mods" vote against their interests. Also odd how most top posts on this sub the past few months are crossposts from various /r/politics spam subs

So you think a post titled say "Donald Trump is against Open Borders" isn't going to do well on this sub because of /r/politics shills?

Almost no one here is actually pro-Trump. It's just an bunch of edgy former Bernie bros trying to rile up liberals by supporting an idiot. I hate pot smokers, hate gamers and love war. I voted Trump because I genuinely believe in what the Republican Party has always stood for. Most of the idiots here are just Paultards, Libertarians, and whatever the hell else "conservative" potheads are calling themselves nowadays.