Trust and distrust in conspiracy theorist circles.

1  2018-05-17 by CelineHagbard

I'd say most readers here believe in at least a few conspiracy theories, of varying complexity and extent. The fundamental element of believing a conspiracy theory is distrust: believing a conspiracy theory means we must distrust that the alleged conspirators are being honest with us.

And yet, for human society to function cooperatively for the benefit of all, we must have a fundamental amount of trust between each other. If you can't trust that the people around you won't stab you if you turn your back to them, you can't live in that society, at least not without being constantly paranoid of everything.

The problem in conspiracy theorist circles is reconciling these two true facts:

  1. There do exist conspirators whom we should distrust
  2. We must trust other humans if we want to live in a peaceful and prosperous society

Can we all agree with these two statements? I'm serious. I think this is a point where pretty much everyone can agree, and I think most do. I'd like to know if you do disagree.


Yet the problem in conspiracy theorist circles, and increasingly in society in general, is that we end up distrusting most of society, assigning the worst motives to them. "Liberals" don't trust "conservatives," and vice versa. Trump supporters don't trust Trump detractors, and vice versa. Even within these broad categories there are more specific camps who distrust each other, most of all in conspiracy theorist circles. And yet the justification is the same for all of this distrust: "I distrust you because you trust in <insert person|party|country|etc.>, and I distrust them because I believe they are conspirators."

This might seem like a sensible claim, and even one that we ought to make, and in individual circumstances, it often makes sense to make this claim. The problem is what happens when a majority of people make these claims, each distrusting a majority of the population. At this point, social cohesion (the bonds of trust between individuals and groups) becomes weaker than the anti-social forces (the active distrust between individuals and groups). The society becomes less and less functional, and suffering becomes greater. That is, the claim of distrust fails Kant's test of the categorical imperative.

TL;DR: If we want a peaceful and prosperous society, we must learn how to trust people who trust people and institutions that we ourselves distrust.


Related: The Evolution of Trust

55 comments

Good stuff.

One I see a lot is people distrusting Julian Assange because he thinks AQ was responsible for 9/11.

In fact just today I saw a user hoping he gets tortured because of that view.

Now, that's not to say I trust Mr Assange. My distrust is based mostly on his behaviour and character.

But to say it's because of a view he holds regarding something he has nothing to do with is extremely silly.

What I'm saying is less about trusting or distrusting any public figure, from Assange to politicians to media personalities and celebrities, and more about trusting real people in our lives, especially our family members, friends, and acquaintances. I've heard so many people in real life talk about distrusting their own family and former friends because of their political party or who they voted for.

So in your Assange scenario, regardless of whether your or I trust Assange, as long as its for well-founded reasons, we should still be able to trust each others' motives.

I think I also need to clarify that I'm talking more about trusting people's motivations and integrity more than their specific opinions or beliefs. I'm not saying we believe everyone else beliefs, just that we learn to trust each other's motivation. Most people are not naturally untrustworthy; we're just being conditioned to think they are.

While we may trust the motivation of a person or social group, it may be unwise to trust their dedication to truth. Many, many people read one source, trust that source, don't fact check, and embrace an idea because it feeds their point of view (and ego as well). Some of these people are good, earnest people but they don't take extra steps involved to back up their views. I may still feel good about the relationship with such a person, but my trust in their knowledge is shaky at best. I guess what I'm trying to say is while I trust their intentions, I don't trust their processing.

I guess what I'm trying to say is while I trust their intentions, I don't trust their processing.

Yes, exactly. I might not have been clear enough in the post, but this is what I'm trying to get across. We should each evaluate any information we receive from other people critically: where did they get the information, why should we believe it, what ulterior motives might the person or the original source have in publishing that information?

Yet we're in a better position to both discover true information and work together with others to make a better world if we can find some common ground. I think that common ground is my two points from the OP: we recognize that there are conspirators in the world who take advantage of others through deceit, and we as people (whichever people we each choose) must work together to secure our own liberty.

Were you around in 1994? Let me set the scene for those of you who were not around.

Ronald Reagan was caught trading arms for hostages, breaking the law ans supplying aide to the Contras, bringing cocaine into America's cities, etc. There were investigations. Ronald Reagan partially admitted on television of his role in the crimes and apologized. The investigations were ongoing when in 1992, George Bush lost the election and pardoned all the major suspects. Ultimately, Democrats let them get away with all these crimes.

All of these things took place in an environment of civility.

Then Bill Clinton came to office. Newt Gingrich declared his Contract on America and all hell broke loose. Bill Clinton was attacked constantly with blatant lies and fake news that proliferated the TV and MSM, and especially MSM radio. We even had a Senator call the president a "scumbag." Bill Clinton was impeached for misrepresenting a private sex act. Everyone knew that he was not going to be removed but Republicans did it anyway on a party line vote just to escalate their attacks.

By 2000, with the addition of Fox News and the internet, things got very ugly indeed. Republicans started calling Democrats "RATS" in their official TV commercials. Then, the name calling increased and terms like "democraps" and "republicons" entered the zeitgeist.

As if that weren't enough, Republicans violently stopped the 2000 election vote count, then had a five member cabal of the Supreme Court override eveyr single law they touched to make sure the vote count stayed stopped and to install George W. Bush into the White House so he could implement his PNAC agenda of having three large scale wars at the same time thanks to the "new Pearl Harbor," to militarize space, to suck up all our information with Total Information Awareness, to lie to us deliberately using government funds with the Office of Disinformation, etc.

THIS IS WHEN things got all polarized, and Republicans did it. If more than 20 years later it happens that some Democrats are fighting back with more outrage than we like, it was bound to happen. You can't keep attacking people forever and have them lie down and take it.

As for your main point about trusting people, I assure you, I do not trust the integrity of five of the highest legal minds in the nation when they overturn an election and install someone in the White House. They knew better. They are guilty as anyone. It's called the December 12 Coup, and we will not forget.

THIS IS WHEN things got all polarized, and Republicans did it.

I can probably agree with this, and let's say I do. Let's say I agree with you that the Republicans started this mess in blatantly cynical fashion, and that's why the polarization is so bad today. Okay, now what?

Does our current situation, with a majority of Democratic voters distrusting a majority of Republican voters, and vice versa, offer us any peaceful and cooperative way forward? I'm not talking about trusting Democratic or Republican politicians, mind you — I think on the whole they're all corrupt — I'm talking about people, real people of the proletariat if you prefer that terminology, distrusting each other. I don't see how a society can remain functional, let alone peaceful and prosperous, if the people of that society can't trust each other.

Good question.

any peaceful and cooperative way forward?

No, there is no peaceful and cooperative way forward with people who continue to suck on TPTB, the Republican House, the Republican Senate, the Republican Supreme Court, and the Republican White House. They started the attacks, they have attacked incessantly for a quarter century, and they will not stop when the other side goes back to lying down. (The other side being people who oppose the well-known Republican platform to tear down literally everything that made America great.)

You see, if they started this back in 1994 and had free run with attacks for the first six years, there is nothing to say they will ever stop until they are forced to stop by being taken out of power. That is the only solution now.

Taking Republicans out of power worked in the 30's and 40's to put America on the right track, and apparently that is the only thing that works. Republicans must be rejected for a long enough period until they are forced to moderate as they did in those days.

What to do about the people? It's gonna be hard to bring the people back together. I am civil to both Republicans and Democrats. That's all I can do. Stick to the substance, get this particularly vile strain of oligarchy out of office, then we can have some breathing room to go back to fighting for progress. We've done it before, we can do it again.

Stick to the substance, get this particularly vile strain of oligarchy out of office, then we can have some breathing room to go back to fighting for progress.

Democrats have been in power twice since '94, with Clinton and Obama, and frankly, I don't think either have really brought any significant change. I don't think Clinton and Obama were as bad on foreign policy or most social issues, but in terms of economic policy, domestic surveillance, and general social cohesion, they haven't been much better.

Clinton's crime bill was horrible for black people and communities, and Obama's ACA is essentially Heritage Foundation's plan from the 70s. Obama did nothing to reign in the powers of the executive that Bush added, and in a lot of ways normalized and expanded those powers. In many real ways, Clinton and Obama were to the right of Eisenhower and Nixon.

Even under Democratic presidents and congresses, we've seen an erosion of our civil liberties, a total disregard for the sovereignty of other peoples and nations, and a consolidation of power among the largest corporations in this country. Even if Democratic politicians and party leadership could be trusted, the pendulum effect all but guarantees that Republicans will be elected again, and will carry out the same policies of their owners in 4–12 years. It's not sustainable.

You are mistaken about a few things that I've seen said many times before. I'll deal with one for now:

Democrats have been in power twice since '94, with Clinton and Obama

Democrats have only controlled the two branches of government for two years since 1994 -- the years 2009 and 2010. That's only one term or two years of the past 24 years. The third branch of government has been controlled by Republicans for nearly 50 years straight.

Republicans have had control of all three branches of government for eight of the past 24 years -- four times as much time.

The numbers show clearly that Republicans have had much more control over government in recent times.

If you are willing to concede this point, I'll be happy to run through some of your other points.

You are mistaken about a few things that I've seen said many times before. I'll deal with one for now:

Democrats have been in power twice since '94, with Clinton and Obama

Democrats have only controlled the two branches of government for two years since 1994 -- the years 2009 and 2010. That's only one term or two years of the past 24 years. The third branch of government has been controlled by Republicans for nearly 50 years straight.

Republicans have had control of all three branches of government for eight of the past 24 years -- four times as much time at the legislative and executive branch -- including the years of 9-11, Iraq War, and Katrina.

The numbers show clearly that Republicans have had much more control over government in recent times.

If you are willing to agree to this point, I'll be happy to run through some of your other points.

the pendulum effect

Your last point is very interesting, if we get to it.

The numbers show clearly that Republicans have had much more control over government in recent times.

If you are willing to agree to this point, I'll be happy to run through some of your other points.

Agreed 100%. My point is not that Democrats have caused the same magnitude of problems as Republicans; Republicans have them beat by a long shot.

My point is only that Democrats are not a real alternative. When they are in power, they capitulate, walk back some of the worst abuses of previous administrations and legislatures, pass out a few token initiatives to placate the people, and then the Republicans are back in power. It's two steps back, one step forward at best.

My point is only that Democrats are not a real alternative.

I would like to agree with this, but where would a real alternative come from? We haven't had a 'third party' break through since 1860. Even Teddy Roosevelt could not get his Bull Moose Party off the ground, after already spending some seven years in the White House as a Republican. The next big alternative was Ross Perot, who amazingly received 18.9 percent of the vote. Then, things went really backward with the 2000 election. I just don't see any viable alternative coming any time soon. If there were more independents in Congress, we would be closer -- but there are very few. It's just not working.

When they are in power, they capitulate, walk back some of the worst abuses

Totally legitimate complaint. Democrats have only held both branches for four of the past 38 years, twice for two years -- 1993-94 and 2009-10.

pass out a few token initiatives to placate the people

The people who are affected would not call these things tokens. Take the sentencing act that Barack Obama got through. Some 12,000 people were released from prison, while millions more are no longer facing life sentences should they be caught with a rock of crack. This is a real difference for real people and one less thing in the way while people are arguing -- giving these people an opportunity to join in opposition against other things.

and then the Republicans are back in power.

This is our mistake. Take 2010 for example. Barack Obama was put up as the great savior in 2008. He was never going to meet that role, thereby setting up the coming "disappointment." Meanwhile, the Kochs and the Bradleys were establishing an "outsider" movement within the Republican Party that was going to take on the establishment and work for the people. They called it the Tea Party.

We should not have bought into the carefully orchestrated propping up of Barack Obama as a savior, and we should not have believed that the oligarchs funding the Tea Party were anything but establishment. But enough people did and Republicans grabbed power back with lightning speed. We should have kept Republicans out of power for more than a lousy two years. Compare: when FDR arrived, Republicans were out of power for many years and they made progress.

Democrats are not generally representing the people, for specific reasons:

  1. Rules changes and consolidation during the Ronald Reagan years and also during the Clinton years have made it harder to represent an "opposition" to elites. What a huge mistake to put Republicans back in with Clinton who rubber stamped so many really awful laws.

  2. Democratic leadership is essentially 'on the take' of the oligarchy.

  3. The 2010 election included a purge of 'blue dog' Democrats with about half of them losing their seats.

  4. MOST IMPORTANT -- Pendulum theory: Because Republicans have held the bulk of power since 1981 when the pendulum swung, and because this is (apparently) what people wanted, Democrats have become more like Republicans. They will continue to do so as long as they are the 'minority' power. We are putting the cart before the horse. Why would Democrats care what the more liberal members of society say when they keep 'losing' elections? While this is a major subject of debate, it makes some sense for Democrats to move toward Republicans to sweep up the swing voters. Of course, this debate is a huge issue and this comment is already too long, so I'm just bringing up one side to understand the thinking.

Just like in the years after FDR was elected, it is going to take a while to really pull Democratic politicians toward the people. There are many groups working on it. I can say one thing for sure: Republicans have been the party of oligarchy for at least 100 years and they will remain so.

I would like to agree with this, but where would a real alternative come from?

You probably wouldn't like my answer, but I'm a voluntaryist. I believe all human interaction should be governed by the principle of mutual consent and the the non-aggression principle. I believe governments are coercive by their nature and thus incompatible with voluntaryism. I think that it is impossible for governments or even one government to bring about a peaceful, prosperous, and free society through coercive means, and so there will never emerge a real alternative from the political system, even a "third" party (we only have one party with two wings).

The people who are affected would not call these things tokens. Take the sentencing act that Barack Obama got through.

I think that was a good law, and made a real difference in real people's lives. Obama definitely halted the climb of incarceration rates (graph), and we'll see how that fares in coming years.

Yet if the magnitude of these good laws passed under Democratic governments is less than the magnitude of bad laws passed under both Republican and Democratic governments, then I do say they're tokens. They're tokens because the overall direction is always toward greater control by the government, which does not represent the people.

While this is a major subject of debate, it makes some sense for Democrats to move toward Republicans to sweep up the swing voters.

It's a sound strategic decision, I can agree to that. The problem is that when they move into the center to get votes, and then continue to do the bad things the US government always does, the center rejects them and goes back to the Republicans.

The Republican premise is that government doesn't work, and they actively try to make it not work. When it turns out that government doesn't work (in part because they made it not work), the people agree that they're right and vote them in. That's what Trump was, and he wasn't wholly wrong in saying that the government doesn't work. (The con by Republicans is obviously that they and they're cronies benefit enormously from a government that does not work.)

Just like in the years after FDR was elected, it is going to take a while to really pull Democratic politicians toward the people.

If it is possible to reform the government, the focus must be on restoring and creating actual representation, which requires structural reform, and it has to start at the state and local level. Maine and many municipalities introducing ranked choice voting, multi-member districts, proportional representation. And a devolution of powers from the national government to the State and local governments. Unless you devolve the power back down to the people — and Democrats have never limited the power of the executive or of the national government — I cannot see the political system solving the problems it created.

I would likely vote for someone like Larry Lessig, who ran on the single issue of campaign finance reform. If the American people are serious about reforming their government, they need to form a structural reform party, with a few key planks about reforming the government, and no policy positions at all. Their mandate must be to reform the government in ways that can be agreed to by Republican and Democratic voters, and once they accomplish their goals, they resign.

Republicans have been the party of oligarchy for at least 100 years and they will remain so.

Agreed, and arguably much longer. Lincoln fought the Civil War for northern industrialists. But how many Democrats would the oligarchs really need to own, assuming they own all the Republicans, to ensure that their policy preferences are acted upon?

Definitely not at all a voluntarist or any sort of libertarian here, although I used to sort of like the idea. But that's a debate you and I have both had a thousand times before with others I'm sure. So moving on :P

has to start at the state and local level

People are working at all levels -- every tool in the toolbox! Encourage local action, but respect people choosing their own way of making change.

structural reform party

that welcomes people from both of the major parties and permits dual loyalties until the party grows large enough to carry its own

key planks about reforming the government, and no policy positions

This has been a lifelong idea I've held, but the real world shows me that the moment a subject like abortion or gun rights comes up, everyone rushes to respective corners -- general concepts be damned. Of course, we still have to build understanding on this, but I see it as a long term goal.

We've got some agreement here. We both find the current system to be ridiculously corrupt.

but the real world shows me that the moment a subject like abortion or gun rights comes up, everyone rushes to respective corners -- general concepts be damned.

Yeah, that's the problem with our two party system as it's set up. A two party system isn't necessarily bad, but the way the lines are drawn is artificial. There is a large anti-interventionist, anti-war contingent on both the left and the right. I would say Sanders, Ron (Rand) Paul, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and Lessig if you count him are all of this anti-interventionist strain, and their combined supporters (someone for whom that candidate is the first choice) I would say is arguably close to a majority. Many Trump voters voted for him at least in part because they thought he would be more restrained in global conflicts than Clinton.

Yet because of the way the lines are drawn between Republicans and Democrats, we get involved in global conflicts either way, albeit the Democrats are usually less overt and bombastic with their wars, and we lose less American lives. If the anti-war voters voted together, we could reduce America's military footprint, but instead both major party candidates are typically at least somewhat pro-war in the end. For the most part it's no better at the congressional level, as there are very few strong anti-war voices in either house, and at best some milquetoast opposition from the apparent left. Trump wouldn't have received the military spending he got from Congress without Democratic votes.

Of course, we still have to build understanding on this, but I see it as a long term goal.

If it is a long-term goal, and I agree that it is, are you willing to vote only for 3rd party candidates that would support reform-but-no-policy positions? That is, you don't vote for any Democrats, just 3rd-party protest candidates. Are you willing to lose election after election to Republicans, and stand in solidarity to say our current two parties are not working?

Because that's what I think it takes, and every time we vote for a Republican or a Democrat, we're saying "At least he's better than that guy." And when we do get candidates like Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders, candidates that make people say "I want that guy!", the establishment and media for each party has silenced them. The parties want us voting against each other rather than for candidates we want.

We've got some agreement here. We both find the current system to be ridiculously corrupt.

Agreed :) Thank you for hashing this out with me civilly. It appreciate that for its rarity. I do think we have some agreement here, and it's hard to tell over the internet, but I think we have some of the same goals as well; our disagreements seem to be more about strategies and tactics to achieve these goals rather than about the goals themselves.

This is the kind of base level of trust I was talking about in the OP. We may disagree on a lot, but if we can trust each other enough to explore an idea together honestly yet graciously, we can still learn from each other and find where we do have common ground. Thank you.

There is a large anti-interventionist, anti-war contingent on both the left and the right.

I don't see libertarians as anti-war at all. The people who created the modern libertarian platform are precisely for war -- especially the Bradley Foundation which funded PNAC and the Tea Party, and the Koch brothers who now fund the new PNAC. How can they be anti-war when they fund warmongering? LARP!

Libertarianism itself is not anti-war -- it is anti-government war. When it comes to oil companies committing genocide in Liberia or Coca-Cola killing people in Colombia, apparently that's not war, that's just good business.

we get involved in global conflicts either way, albeit the Democrats are usually less overt

Democrats are the lesser warmongers and it matters! If Donald Trump fully reverses Iran policy and another giant war ensues, any chance for change or progress will slip away for many years as we have to spend our time working on the current damage. (We knew going in that DJT was against the Iran peace deal.) Also, the damage that GWB did persists 10 years after his swift demise.

anti-war voters voted together, we could reduce America's military footprint

There is a certain domestic psychology involved. As you probably know, think-tanks in the early 20th Century created a policy to promote foreign wars for the purpose of pursuing a domestic agenda -- exposed in the Reese Committee. They saw how change in foreign policy could cause change in domestic policy.

I say the converse is true too. We can use domestic policy to change foreign policy. With a robust policy of breaking up corporations, reducing corporate speech, taxing the rich, and pursuing fair treatment for all identity groups we can lift people up to a place where they have the freedom to oppose wars.

Nevertheless, I could agree to support a group that included libertarians in stopping wars, but it would be a very short alliance of convenience. I think OWS had quite a few libertarians in it, but I got the impression they dropped off rather quickly.

Are you willing to lose election after election to Republicans, and stand in solidarity to say our current two parties are not working?

I must say no. Each time Republicans get into the White House they do extraordinary damage and take us away from any hope of making improvements in the war situation.

For 38 years, I've watched as the damage done by Republican government has harmed real people and has rarely been reversed. We have to live all this time that it is supposed to take to finally get a government to substantially represent the people, and that may be a long time away. All this backsliding has made it extremely difficult.

Besides, when the revolution comes, we don't know where we will end up. Look at Egypt. They had a perfect revolution. Everything was going fine. Then the Muslim Brotherhood got in and people were not happy. Given the choice between the Muslim Brotherhood or the old establishment conducting a coup, people decided to just lie down and let the coup take place. Further, things could be even worse. Look at Yemen or Syria. We are playing with fire.

Republicans took power incrementally. They celebrated every small win. 38 years later, they run the store and they have achieved major goals. That worked.

I do in fact vote all "third party" in most elections. I actually voted for Jill Stein in 2016 because the outcome was certain between HRC and DJT. I never really liked Jill Stein, so even that vote was settling. She's no Ralph Nadar. But anyway, if I were in a swing state like Florida, I would have settled even further and voted for HRC.

We both seem to want to get to a similar place, but we sure do have different ideas how to get there.

I don't see libertarians as anti-war at all.

I'm talking more about small-l libertarians, and particularly individual voters who identify as a libertarian, not the institutions pushed by the Kochs, the Birchers, etc. I likely despise the Kochs political activism as much as you do. But if you look at Ron Paul's foreign policy and campaign positions, the positions which garnered him as much support as they did, he was pretty firmly anti-war and non-interventionist.

I see the Tea Party et al as being largely the same as the major parties: coopted or wholly-created movements that appeal to voters' preferences, but are pushing their own agendas.

When it comes to oil companies committing genocide in Liberia or Coca-Cola killing people in Colombia, apparently that's not war, that's just good business.

Corporations have used the US military as their enforcement arm for over a century. Smedley Butler's "War is a Racket" describes his history as a highly decorated general as being a hired gun for US corporations. Yes, if we eliminated the US military's wars, corporations would still hire their Blackwaters and others to do their fighting, but it would be more costly for them, both financially and in terms of PR.

We need to stop both kinds of war, but at least nominally the US government is responsible to its citizens, and we're paying for this murder and devastation with our tax dollars. I can choose not to spend money on Coke, but I am coerced to pay the government their tribute under penalty of imprisonment. I'm as opposed to centralized power wielded by corporations as I am when it's wielded by states.

Democrats are the lesser warmongers and it matters!

When Democrats had full control over the Congress and Executive in '09, what did they do to limit the power of the Executive in waging war? The AUMF passed in the days after 9/11 is still in force, and as Barbara Lee pointed out when she voted against it, it's a blank check for whatever the Executive wants to use it for. If the Democrats actually cared about preventing Republican administrations from causing the undeniable havoc they do, they would be serious about limiting the Executive, and demanding that the Congress reassert its sole Constitutional authority to declare war.

With a robust policy of breaking up corporations, reducing corporate speech, taxing the rich, and pursuing fair treatment for all identity groups we can lift people up to a place where they have the freedom to oppose wars.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree here.

Nevertheless, I could agree to support a group that included libertarians in stopping wars, but it would be a very short alliance of convenience.

Which is how representative governments should ideally function: representatives should vote for the policies their constituents prefer. Instead, roughly half of the population has no real representation in Congress. 51% of a district vote for the rep who wins, who then generally represents that segment of the population, but not the other 49%. Politicians are far more beholden to donors and parties than their own people.

But yes, limited alliances across party lines on specific areas of agreement would be helpful.

I've watched as the damage done by Republican government has harmed real people and has rarely been reversed.

That's my point: the harm is hardly ever reversed. Each administration since FDR with the possible exception of Carter's has increased the power of the Executive. The Democratic strategy has been to further increase that power so they can accomplish what they think is better for the country (and I often agree with their professed goals: equal treatment for all identity groups, limit corporate power, etc), but the actual outcome has been stronger executive powers for the next Republican government.

if I were in a swing state like Florida, I would have settled even further and voted for HRC.

And I argue that would only kick the can down the road. Had Clinton been elected, she would have been the most unpopular President in our history, just like Trump arguably is. Anything that went wrong under her, and much would have gone wrong (as it has with Trump) would have been blamed on her and the Democrats. Her "scandals," real or not, would have dominated every headline. I would be astonished if Republicans would not have won and won big in 2020.

We both seem to want to get to a similar place, but we sure do have different ideas how to get there.

I'm convinced that more conversations like this is what is needed.

That's my point: the harm is hardly ever reversed... would only kick the can down the road

I will say one more time that a holding pattern is better than continued destruction and harm. Today, for the first time in two generations, we are seeing an insurgency in the Democratic Party that is seriously working for real change. I used to laugh at "Occupy Democrats" as OWS was nonpartisan. But now I think they have the right idea. If an Iran war breaks out, the insurgency will sputter out.

When Democrats had full control over the Congress and Executive in '09,

They were given a lousy two years. It would take some time to really push them. FDR had the same problem. Many Democrats opposed him. His solution was to get more and better Democrats into office, and things went more smoothly later on -- especially after Democrats took over the Supreme Court.

AUMF passed in the days after 9/11 is still in force

Two years, especially in the post GWB environment was not enough. The Democratic Party had filled with a large number of 'blue dogs.' It was going to take some time for progress to take hold, just like with FDR. Ending the AUMF in that environment would likely have been a political loser. The people were still very afraid and the blowback would have been even larger.

Back to the issue of war, we may both agree that the 1974 War Powers Act needs to go along with the 2001 AUMF. Let's pull this war thing out by its roots. The WPA was written to prevent judicial intervention and to allow for what were then called "police actions." It authorized the executive to start wars without Congressional approval for a limited time (60 days?). But as we know, once you're in, the mood shifts and people want to "win."

Recall that Senator Russ Feingold, who had one of the best voting records in the Senate, was voted out of office in 2006 even though he was the only Senator to vote against the USAPATRIOT Act. That's a real shame and it speaks volumes about the limits of counting on the people for change.

I will say one more time that a holding pattern is better than continued destruction and harm.

I'd say that the holding pattern is still a declining holding pattern. The question is whether we can pull up on the control stick before the ground reaches us. In fact, I think it's that question that is really our point of disagreement here. You think (please correct me if I'm wrong) that we can pull out of the decline by incremental reform through electoral politics, and I do not think that's possible.

If your strategy works, and we get to the peaceful and prosperous society we both desire, then I'd be ecstatic. I'd gladly admit I was wrong, and move on living in that society.

There are a number of factors that lead me to believe that is not possible. Environmental degradation and advances in AI/robotics (meaning, a corporation or nation-state will soon be able to wage war without human soldiers). I believe that by giving legitimacy to our government through our actions, we increase its capacity to do harm, even if that harm is somewhat lessened or reverted under Democratic governments.

we may both agree that the 1974 War Powers Act needs to go along with the 2001 AUMF. Let's pull this war thing out by its roots.

Agreed 100%

That's a real shame and it speaks volumes about the limits of counting on the people for change.

Limits of the people or the political system?

we can pull out of the decline by incremental reform through electoral politics, and I do not think that's possible.

That's exactly right.

It gets harder and harder. 38 years ago Ronald Reagan took office and Republicans took the Senate more than 20 years after Republicans had discredited themselves with the McCarthy witch hunt. Except for the intransigent war issue, much progress was made in those 20 years AND the economy was hopping. Year 1981 was the moment we went from progress to reaction.

I actually remember in those days how unwelcome Ronald Reagan was to a large segment of society. Believe it or not, and this is nearly entirely down the memory hole, Ronald Reagan was considered an "extremist." He seems so mild now. :P

So, here's a best-of-both-worlds compromise.

I support what might be called the most radical groups pushing for change. I can and do do that. I also want to see Republicans out of the way for a few years like they were in the 30s-40s and again in the 60s-70s. I will do both. What do we have to lose?

And again, I would only vote for a Democrat in a competitive race (unless we get someone like a Cynthia McKinney running of course). Otherwise, I will stick with third parties.

Limits of the people or the political system?

In that case, putting aside election cheating which likely moved the official total a few percentage points, the people showed what Ralph Schoenman might call "the limits of liberalism." Sometimes, our own limitations are ourselves.

I spend most time here and not so much in r/politics because, although I often agree with them on issues, I see the psyop working on them. The usual views are that they supposedly don't believe in conspiracies, more now than ever they think MSM is the "free press," and they expect Robert Mueller to do justice. I'm afraid that fear of DJT has made many Democrats too willing to support literally anyone who the Democratic establishment supports.

You forgotten the Telecommunications Act which tied.all 24/7 news together into the big six.

I think that distinction helped lead to what you're discussing in the 2000's

No, I definitely did not forget that. The 1996 act is the subject of popular posts here at least once a week, and everyone knows something about it. But since you asked, let's talk about media deregulation that most don't know:

FDR broke up CBS into three networks: CBS, NBC, and ABC.

When Reagan came along, he sold each of these three networks to large conglomerates, thus beginning media deregulation. He sold CBS to a financial company, NBC to a manufacturer and military contractor, and ABC to a CIA front previously run by his own CIA guy William Casey.

Ronald Reagan eliminated all of the rules against integration. He allowed these newly conglomerated network giants to become the full stream of information -- allowing them to own and control production, broadcasting, and distribution.

Ronald Reagan lifted the caps on ownership, allowing single companies to own more newspapers, magazines, and television stations, and allowing the networks to own more TV and radio stations.

Ronald Reagan eliminated the Fairness Doctrine, which single-handedly created what was then called "right wing hate radio." In fact, Rush Limbaugh was created and syndicated across the United States by the ABC network, now controlled by a CIA front company. There's your Deep State by the way.

Ronald Reagan lifted ownership caps so that, by the time the 1996 act came along, there were only eight major companies controlling 90 percent of the media.

And Eric Holder ensured that they could not be punished as a corporation.

It's a pretty fucked up cycle that really paints a picture to how it's gotten here.

One I see a lot is people distrusting Julian Assange because he thinks AQ was responsible for 9/11.

Just how ridiculous would Assange's claims have to be before you saw through the joke?

Anybody who in 2018 still promotes the official story of 9/11 is either a genuine moron (IQ <70) or a liar.

Assange does not strike me as a moron. Quite the opposite, actually.

Well this is what I'm talking about!

Most people have a different idea of what happened that day so someone who doesn't accept the official story includes most people on this board and I don't think that's a fair way to discredit someone and especially no fair way to call anyone a moron as you just have done.

Belief in 9/11 official story = utter stupidity.

Period.

Sigh.

Whatever.

Don't conflate stupidity with ignorance.

There are plenty of highly intelligent people that are completely ignorant of what is going on in the world. They are so either because they are afraid to look and learn, they are afraid they will be ostracized by their peers for changing their views and labeled crazy and/or they simply don't care about what's happening. In many cases it can also be an overinflated ego, where they think they know everything and any alternative opinions are literally beneath them, they look at conspiracy theorists and the like with a disdainful superiority and they are not open to being challenged or being wrong.

highly intelligent

This obviously depends on what you mean by 'intelligent', doesn't it?

Indeed it does. I guess we can debate the semantics of words here, but intelligent in the context you provided (you mentioned IQ in your first post) is cognitive intelligence and what I was referring to in my comment.

they think they know everything and any alternative opinions are literally beneath them, they look at conspiracy theorists and the like with a disdainful superiority and they are not open to being challenged or being wrong.

I don't know what you call people that behave this way; "sma

Yeah, you could call that stupid and I would tend to agree. But the person I was replying to was talking about IQ in a comment above, so that is what the word "intelligent" was related to.

Don't fall into the trap of thinking your certainty is better than their ignorance.

Ignorance can also be certain. Aim for humility and you'll be fine.

Openness, as well as curiosity are thes keys, especially openness to being wrong.

I think you also have to add the possibility that for one reason or another, they just don't put a high priority on knowing what truly happened on 9/11, or any other particular historical event that we do place great importance on.

Many people in the US, and around the world, simply don't have much time to spend on these subjects. They have long hours to work and long commutes, time spent raising children or taking care of others, developing and pursuing their passions.

Most of my Latino and black people who are struggling to get food, clothes and shelter in the hood are so concerned with that, that philosophizing about freedom and socialist democracy is usually unfortunately beyond their rationale. They don't realize that America can't exist without separating them from their identity, because if we had some sense of who we really are, there's no way in hell we'd allow this country to push it's genocidal consensus on our homelands.

--Immortal Technique, The Poverty of Philosohpy

I think we do a disservice to ourselves and others when we assume their motivations for not looking into these things. We can say they're priorities are misplaced, but even that statement comes from a place of privilege. For one reason or another, we do have the time and energy to spend researching and discussing these things, but that doesn't necessarily make us any better than the single mother struggling to keep her children fed and healthy. As always, we need to maintain our compassion toward all people.

Absolutely, I agree. But many of these people still DO have the time to at least look at and entertain a different narrative and let go of their often egoic certainty in their correctness (even if they don't have time to research it thoroughly) . Often these people will look down and belittle people that have different views than them, views that pertain to conspiracies, spirituality, an esoteric perspective on reality.... Obviously this is not the case for everyone, but it is the case for many. They may not have time to research such theories, but their lack of humility makes it impossible for them to even entertain them. They feel they are right in their views, because the mainstream narrative told them so. They feel superior and certain in their knowledge about themselves and the world. The whole world needs a dose of humility, especially intellectual humility, and the ability to question their assumptions, even us (especially us perhaps as we shouldn't get stuck with a particular narrative) that have been in this arena, discussing and researching for a long time.

But you make a very important point -time. Some people are struggling with time and the free time they do have is used to recover from very difficult and draining obligations (including their jobs, but also many other things) they have in their life. The system is structured thus for a reason - for people to keep their head in the sand and never have time to look up and see a different picture.

If we circle back to the first point I must concede that it is difficult at times to admit you're wrong and have all your beliefs and perceptions about the world challenged. I know it was extremely difficult for me. That is why I always have, as you put it, compassion for everyone "waking up". It's not an easy ride, but it's one we all have to continue on, while letting go of our often incessant desire to be right, instead of being free.

This is a powerful introspective practice btw, one that is related to this subject - whenever you are stuck with a hard belief that you feel you are perhaps wrong about, especially since your intuition is telling you a different story, ask yourself - "Would I rather be right or would I rather be free?" If you decide to choose freedom, this will give you a greater openness for whatever the topic at hand is, as well as the ability to more directly listen to and follow your intuition. Questions like that are extremely powerdul facilitators for freedom and growth, as well as clarity.

I'm probably going to do a short meditative session in this vein shortly, anyway, as I too can many times prefer to be right than to be free ;) It is definitely one of my weaknesses, I've noticed (even if this may not be always apparent in the online discussions I partake in :) ).

Where and when has he ever promoted the official story or declared a personal belief in it though?

Assange simply stated the following, "I'm constantly annoyed that people are distracted by false conspiracies such as 9/11, when all around we provide evidence of real conspiracies, for war or mass financial fraud."

Conspiracy definition

-a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful. "a conspiracy to destroy the government" -the action of plotting or conspiring.

Considering the dictionary's definition and in light of what was uncovered, is it not moronic to understand that what he's said regarding 9/11 is essentially true to the definition of the terminology? If there's proof it's considered a 'conspiracy' and if not, then until any proof becomes available it's considered a 'fake conspiracy'. To deduce anything other than that is simply ridiculous.

It's like a child hoping mum might bring back a toffee apple from the supermarket and then getting upset and claiming that she's a stupid bitch for not bringing back what wasn't fkn available.

If we want a peaceful and prosperous society, we must learn how to trust people who trust people and institutions that we ourselves distrust.

Eh, I completely disagree. Humans are tribal people, and are not meant to live in a vast society (like we have now). We can trade and interact with the broader society, but, at the end of the day... not live/cohabit as we do now.

Humans thrive in small groups, because of close bonds which ultimately lead to trust. Similar people, will always coalesce with one another (not the other way around - ie. opposites).

For example: I could never trust or live among Marxists, because their ideology is based on ultimately stealing from me, and others. Which completely goes against my principles.

Ultimately, I think the US should be broken up into 5 or more separate City States.

I don't think we do disagree, and I think what I'm saying is compatible with what you are saying. My second "fact" that I wrote was:

2. We must trust other humans if we want to live in a peaceful and prosperous society

I never said how many humans we have to trust, or how large our society would need to be. I think humans can live very well in small tribes or villages, and depending on how our history truly happened, that is how humans have spent most of their time as a society. I think we can also live in larger societies, city-state to small nation-state, though I agree our "nation"-states such as the US, China, and India are too large today.

Ultimately, I think the US should be broken up into 5 or more separate City States.

I'm not opposed to that outcome, but I don't think the US Government will ever let itself be broken up. Any true evolution or revolution or awakening must come from the bottom up: from individuals relearning how to trust themselves, and how to trust each other. People forming self-sufficient and inter-dependent communities that do not rely on centralized structures like the US Government to function and meet their communities' needs.

Governments ensure compliance to societal norms on the basis of fear. If you do not obey your government, your government will use force, up to and including lethal force to coerce you into submission. That is the only tool that government's have, that and the propaganda to make us believe it's the only way. We don't need to wait for governments to do what we think they ought to do, we need to create our own webs of trust and build our own communities with that trust as its foundation.

We don't need to wait for governments to do what we think they ought to do, we need to create our own webs of trust and build our own communities with that trust as its foundation.

Well said, and I completely agree.

And that's kinda what I'm getting at. You and I have had many discussions over the years, typically about what we disagree about as those are the more interesting conversations, yet I think for the most part we have the same basic intentions and motivations — broadly speaking, peaceful societies through individual liberty.

We may disagree on specifics, or on strategies and tactics to accomplish these goals, but I generally trust that you believe what you do and act in the world as you do with integrity and for noble motivations as you see them. That's not to say I fully believe that you're not an agent of some conspirator, but I don't need to know that to tentatively trust you. I don't trust you with my life or with my identity, but I can trust your sincerity and honesty in our conversation, and we need that if we're ever to build mutual understanding.

I'm more talking about real life, with people we've actually met face to face. I'm not saying we need to do this with everyone on this site, for sure, but if we're going to have meaningful conversations, we can only have those with people we can at least pretend to trust.

[removed]

Removed. Rule 5.

I'd say most readers here believe in at least a few conspiracy theories, of varying complexity and extent.

Besides Russiagate? Probably not.

The percentage of "skeptics" has gone up significantly over the last couple of years since the "conspiracy theorist in chief" came on the scene.

Yet the problem in conspiracy theorist circles, and increasingly in society in general, is that we end up distrusting most of society, assigning the worst motives to them.

Idiocracy is the featured doc. That says a lot about how much faith we have in the future of humanity.

I think a lot of conspiracy minded people ascribe to the idea of oneness, interconnectedness and optimism. It's just we're so cynical at times it's hard to tell. That and the constant stereotyping of the "conspiracy theorist" give a warped view.

The anonymity of this platform means a lot of distrust will exist. How can you blame anyone for not trusting Cumsonmytits51? I hardly trust myself with these huge issues.

There is plenty of disagreement to be had over many of these issues. We still have a long way to go to overthrowing these wicked conspirators. The faster we hash out all of our differences the better. Just ban the baseless accusations like lightning and get this over with.

Besides Russiagate? Probably not.

I'm including Russiagate. Fundamentally, a believer in the claims behind Russiagate has a similar psychological attitude towards it as other conspiracy theorists do toward the theories we believe: We each believe that there are conspirators at the highest levels of government that are using deceit, dishonesty, and other unethical means to exploit we the people. They just believe in a different set of conspirators, or don't go as far as some of us do in how deep these conspiracies go.

That says a lot about how much faith this sub has in the future of humanity.

Not really. It says more about how some-but-not-all individuals on this sub view our present reality. I'm not much interested in stereotyping an entire group of people (conspiracy theorists) by the votes on a public forum with open entry.

It's just we're so cynical at times it's hard to tell.

I can certainly agree with this, and I am rather cynical myself about many things. The difference I'm trying to highlight here, though, is being cynical of people vs. being cynical of humanity. I am among the harshest critics and greatest cynics when it comes to human institutions, but an eternal optimist when it comes to humanity and Gaia.

I just don't think this sub any longer represents the "conspiracy theorist" that I've known over the years. Those that I've know in my life are always very spiritually motivated. They are "as wise as serpents, but as innocent as doves."

The distrust you see here is a combination of our anonymity and the success of bad actors disrupting the area. Instead of taking the time to build on the information we have and make the dispersement of it easier, we get slid by the riff raff.

IRL everyone seems to trust each other for the most part imo. Not sure I'm seeing this great distrust among the population. I'm not afraid to share my political perspectives with anyone. What have you seen lately that makes you feel that way?

I just don't think this sub any longer represents the "conspiracy theorist" that I've known over the years.

It's hard to say whether it ever represented "conspiracy theorists" writ large. It's such a broad and diverse label that there's hardly any way to come up with a succinct description or a prototypical conspiracy theorist. There often seems to be more dissimilar than similar among any two "conspiracy theorists." You also have the dichotomy between someone identifying as a conspiracy theorist vs. someone being identified as a conspiracy theorist. It's use as a slur or a derogatory phrase only complicates the problem of defining the group identified by the term.

Those that I've known in my life are always very spiritually motivated. They are "as wise as serpents, but as innocent as doves."

I would agree, and some are still here, but their numbers and voices have been diluted. Many have left for one reason or another, and some just frequent other subs. Because of how diverse the topic of conspiracy is, there are many overlapping topics or narrow focuses. I subscribe to a number of these, and mod a couple.

I'm not afraid to share my political perspectives with anyone. What have you seen lately that makes you feel that way?

I keep a lot of my political beliefs to myself, or at least temper them, partly because they're quite radical in the sense of getting to the root of things (I'm a voluntaryist/anarchist). I still express my views but more carefully or relatably.

What makes me doubt the general trust among the population is what I hear people say about the others' political persuasions when their not in the room. I have some friends and family who are Trump supporters/voters, and some who are Democrats/anti-Trumpers.

I somewhat slide between lines, and most people just assume I agree with them, so they talk freely with me. The way I hear some of them talk about the other group ranges from bemusement to condescension to anger to disdain and almost dehumanization. And it comes from both sides. They seem to have little desire to work with the people from the other side, and more interest in just beating them. It was one thing when we felt that way about the politicians, but now I'm seeing people distrust and condemn each other, even among friends and family. This has an aggregate effect on social cohesion.

Well I guess I'll quote you here

We each believe that there are conspirators at the highest levels of government that are using deceit, dishonesty, and other unethical means to exploit we the people. They just believe in a different set of conspirators,

They may have different interests as far as conspiracy topics go, but they are all essentially the same I suppose. One big distinction conspiracy theorists carry is the opposition to figures like the MSM. I think on the whole we share more in common than not, mostly because I think these fundamentally shared beliefs account for a large part of our being.

Most wear the term as a badge of honor because they understand the implications it carries in this society. Anyone referred to as a conspiracy theorist in a mocking way surely must be aware of their participation.

Because of how diverse the topic of conspiracy is, there are many overlapping topics or narrow focuses.

I wish we could get these users to come back and post to this sub. Mr. Dong was making an effort but I haven't seen him lately.

I hope the seeming rise in division is merely an illusion. Perhaps I'm too far removed.

Shall we get adjacent islands to Puts?

One big distinction conspiracy theorists carry is the opposition to figures like the MSM.

Only if you decide a priori that Russiagaters are not conspiracy theorists, which I think is inaccurate. They believe the theory that Trump and Putin engaged in a conspiracy to defraud the US/steal the presidency/etc. By definition, they are conspiracy theorists, and many of them do trust their chosen MSM outlets when those outlets confirm their suspicions.

I think on the whole we share more in common than not, mostly because I think these fundamentally shared beliefs account for a large part of our being.

I think you are correct here for a subset of conspiracy theorists, and the distinction I would make is between people who start from the premise of investigating corruption and conspiracies to discover the truth, and those who investigate conspiracies to score political points within the electoral theater. There are many pro-Trump and anti-Trump conspiracy theorists who fit in this latter category.

I wish we could get these users to come back and post to this sub. Mr. Dong was making an effort but I haven't seen him lately.

Dong stepped down from the team for personal reasons, and his presence is missed. The issue with getting users back here is that dealing with everything here can be exhausting and draining. Many of these users, myself included to an extent, prefer smaller subs and off-site places where it's more of a conversation than a battle. r/C_S_T is one such sub.

Shall we get adjacent islands to Puts?

Haha, maybe! Personally I think the problem with his strategy is that he's trying to go it alone too much. Say he gets his island. Sure, "they" might leave him alone, or they could just label him a terrorist, hit him with a tomahawk and no one would care. We have to stand up with each other and for each other. The wealthy are well aware of class consciousness, and we disregard it at our peril.

They technically are. It just feels ways too much about politics and that just isn't in the spirit of what I would consider a conspiracy theorist.

You should start crossposting from that sub.

We have to stand up with each other and for each other. The wealthy are well aware of class consciousness, and we disregard it at our peril.

Just a joke coming from me, but I agree with this sentiment.

It just feels ways too much about politics and that just isn't in the spirit of what I would consider a conspiracy theorist.

For sure. In this sense I find "truth seeker" to be a better term for self-identification than "conspiracy theorist," but I'll answer to either. I do think defending the linguistic territory of "conspiracy theorist" is still worthwhile.

You should start crossposting from that sub.

What do you think this post is? ;)

Just a joke coming from me, but I agree with this sentiment.

I figured as much.

What do you think this post is? ;)

Recommending the xpost when this itself is the xpost.

How META!

Remind me to talk about this.

I think this is an oversimplification of those in "conspiracy theorist circles".

I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist, but rather a sceptic of those with power and influnce. My distrust is not based upon my bias (which we all have), but rather the understanding that most in power do what is good for the powerful, rather than what is good for the many.

Yes, there are many within "conspiracy theorist circles" that are driven by their bias to believe things like the Russians hacked the elections or Hillary is a baby eater, but these people are the unitiated, the mindless horde who eat what they are fed, so they can identify with those that are controlling them.

The initiated, the free thinkers, know the cold, scary truth about this world, which is there are only two groups, Them and Us. "They" are truly the powers that be and we are the masses that just want to be free and live in a ethical society. The other scary truth is, "They"are winning.

While I distrust "Them", I don't necessarily distrust the uninitiated, but I am cautious them. As a matter of fact, I know that the only way to affect change, we need them see beyond the lies that cloud their eyes and learn about the real. While I know we need them, the uninitiated are conditioned to shun any information that contradicts Their control and some will violently protect the comforts of their constructed reality.

Understanding the conditioning of the uninitiated, as much as I want to share the truths of the world, I can't trust just anyone with what little understanding I possess. This is the curse of knowledge, this is the frustration of the initated.

TL;DR We must help people understand why they should trust the institutions and powers that we ourselves distrust. Only then we can start to work on forming a peaceful and prosperous society.

Thank you for this reply. It touches on a few key aspects that I had missed. I do agree that there are these two broad groups within these circles, and I think initiated and uninitiated are good terms, if a bit loaded.

We must help people understand why they should not trust the institutions and powers that we ourselves distrust. Only then we can start to work on forming a peaceful and prosperous society.

This is beautiful! Truly. And it's given me a realization, that it's not trust that I was necessarily getting at, but faith. Your formulation, that we "must help people understand," in some way requires a faith that the people we're trying to help can and will understand why we distrust the institutions we do. If we don't have faith in someone we're trying to persuade, we will never persuade them, and those energies are wasted.

This thought leads to the question of whom we should put our faith in. I think it has to start with those closest to us, those whom we love and those we spend our time with. And by faith, I think it's just faith that they can work to form a more peaceful and prosperous society.

This gives us somewhere concrete to work from, we start by putting faith in people around us and encouraging them to play their part in making a better society. Along the way, as we're already working together, we can explain why we distrust the institutions and power we distrust, yet I don't think we have to start with that. We don't have to wait until people are "fully woke"™ before we start creating that more beautiful world our hearts know is possible, and I think we will wake more people by living that world than by trying to explain what's wrong with this world.

What I'm saying is less about trusting or distrusting any public figure, from Assange to politicians to media personalities and celebrities, and more about trusting real people in our lives, especially our family members, friends, and acquaintances. I've heard so many people in real life talk about distrusting their own family and former friends because of their political party or who they voted for.

So in your Assange scenario, regardless of whether your or I trust Assange, as long as its for well-founded reasons, we should still be able to trust each others' motives.

I think I also need to clarify that I'm talking more about trusting people's motivations and integrity more than their specific opinions or beliefs. I'm not saying we believe everyone else beliefs, just that we learn to trust each other's motivation. Most people are not naturally untrustworthy; we're just being conditioned to think they are.

I guess what I'm trying to say is while I trust their intentions, I don't trust their processing.

Yes, exactly. I might not have been clear enough in the post, but this is what I'm trying to get across. We should each evaluate any information we receive from other people critically: where did they get the information, why should we believe it, what ulterior motives might the person or the original source have in publishing that information?

Yet we're in a better position to both discover true information and work together with others to make a better world if we can find some common ground. I think that common ground is my two points from the OP: we recognize that there are conspirators in the world who take advantage of others through deceit, and we as people (whichever people we each choose) must work together to secure our own liberty.

One I see a lot is people distrusting Julian Assange because he thinks AQ was responsible for 9/11.

Just how ridiculous would Assange's claims have to be before you saw through the joke?

Anybody who in 2018 still promotes the official story of 9/11 is either a genuine moron (IQ <70) or a liar.

Assange does not strike me as a moron. Quite the opposite, actually.

I would like to agree with this, but where would a real alternative come from?

You probably wouldn't like my answer, but I'm a voluntaryist. I believe all human interaction should be governed by the principle of mutual consent and the the non-aggression principle. I believe governments are coercive by their nature and thus incompatible with voluntaryism. I think that it is impossible for governments or even one government to bring about a peaceful, prosperous, and free society through coercive means, and so there will never emerge a real alternative from the political system, even a "third" party (we only have one party with two wings).

The people who are affected would not call these things tokens. Take the sentencing act that Barack Obama got through.

I think that was a good law, and made a real difference in real people's lives. Obama definitely halted the climb of incarceration rates (graph), and we'll see how that fares in coming years.

Yet if the magnitude of these good laws passed under Democratic governments is less than the magnitude of bad laws passed under both Republican and Democratic governments, then I do say they're tokens. They're tokens because the overall direction is always toward greater control by the government, which does not represent the people.

While this is a major subject of debate, it makes some sense for Democrats to move toward Republicans to sweep up the swing voters.

It's a sound strategic decision, I can agree to that. The problem is that when they move into the center to get votes, and then continue to do the bad things the US government always does, the center rejects them and goes back to the Republicans.

The Republican premise is that government doesn't work, and they actively try to make it not work. When it turns out that government doesn't work (in part because they made it not work), the people agree that they're right and vote them in. That's what Trump was, and he wasn't wholly wrong in saying that the government doesn't work. (The con by Republicans is obviously that they and they're cronies benefit enormously from a government that does not work.)

Just like in the years after FDR was elected, it is going to take a while to really pull Democratic politicians toward the people.

If it is possible to reform the government, the focus must be on restoring and creating actual representation, which requires structural reform, and it has to start at the state and local level. Maine and many municipalities introducing ranked choice voting, multi-member districts, proportional representation. And a devolution of powers from the national government to the State and local governments. Unless you devolve the power back down to the people — and Democrats have never limited the power of the executive or of the national government — I cannot see the political system solving the problems it created.

I would likely vote for someone like Larry Lessig, who ran on the single issue of campaign finance reform. If the American people are serious about reforming their government, they need to form a structural reform party, with a few key planks about reforming the government, and no policy positions at all. Their mandate must be to reform the government in ways that can be agreed to by Republican and Democratic voters, and once they accomplish their goals, they resign.

Republicans have been the party of oligarchy for at least 100 years and they will remain so.

Agreed, and arguably much longer. Lincoln fought the Civil War for northern industrialists. But how many Democrats would the oligarchs really need to own, assuming they own all the Republicans, to ensure that their policy preferences are acted upon?