"Fancy Bear" and the Skripals: an ongoing analysis

1  2018-10-11 by Gone_Gary_T

Ok folks, time for the further ramblings of an old man.

For whatever reason, probably the Bellingcat thing, this week I started to think again about Fancy Bear, the boogie-people of IT security. Back when Vault 7 was released, I examined related links in articles in the INFOSEC press arriving in my inbox (I'm an INFOSEC sort of person, which is all I want to say about that) and one stood out - not that I can find it again, irritatingly - in which an analyst had discovered matches between Vault 7 (CIA) techniques and Fancy Bear techniques. So, at the back of my mind, Fancy Bear has been associated with the West rather than the popular interpretation that they're Russian.

Thus, this week I wanted to find that analysis and started searching. Easy stuff first, the Wiki, which tells us that US outfit Crowdstrike has a fair idea they're Russian and then that the US Special Council thinks they belong to GRU Unit 26165. Hold the bus. These are the DNC hackers.

Now, Crowdstrike were hired by the DNC, so who are they? Over to Zerohedge. Oh. "Ties to Hillary Clinton, A Ukrainian Billionaire and Google". Not exactly neutrals, then.

Let's dig a bit more. Off-Guardian pops up with the headline "Who is Fancy Bear and Who Are They Working for?". The by-line says "Donbass" and discomforts me, I have to find out where that is... oh.. the breakaway Eastern Ukraine. Oh. Is this Russian propaganda? Let's read the article, dated June 25th this year (keep that in mind).

Oh looky. After a data dump from a hacked Putin aide.. "Eliot Higgins and Aric Toler of Bellingcat worked for the hackers to authenticate the data.". Bellingcat, before they were news. Let's skip to the last couple of paragraphs of the article:

..

Fancy Bear is Ukrainian Intelligence

...

"Key organizations working directly and indirectly with Fancy Bear are Bellingcat, InformNapalm, Stopfake, Propornot, InterpreterMag, Euromaidan Press, Hamilton 68 Dashboard, Facebook, and Twitter. We’ll be going into a lot of detail on these later. Who’s behind Mark Zuckerberg’s new censorship program? Fancy Bear and related groups are. But, more on that, later."

Now, this could all be a load of bollocks. But... but.. it nags. It nags because of the extraordinary info Bellingcat have come out with in the Skripal case; how are they acquiring it? Who are their sources? They couldn't be Ukrainian, could they? Then something I'd read about the Ukrainian Nationalist revolt being the Khazars/Ashkenazi Jews trying to get their "homeland" back rang a bell - does Ukrainian intelligence have access to Israeli skills and repertoire? If there's any truth in the Khazari angle, then very likely. And so the article gets a few more credibility points in my mind, but not many as it's a leap of faith.

Bear with me a little longer. The Skripal case. I cast scorn upon the official version of events in r/ukpolitics 8 days ago and got attacked by u/jampax84 who, it now seems, has deleted their account and all of their completely ad hominem arguments - I was called a "tankie" and had to go and look it up (I'm not one, btw) and they said some crap like "I bet you believe Putin when he lies about no Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine", which was so irrelevant to the point I was making that I thought my attacker had completely lost the plot. It now appears that they were giving themselves away, saying too much.

The Bellingcat info on the two GRU suspects is so detailed that I can only think it true. They were indeed in Salisbury; what with CCTV etc., there can be little doubt. But I have an idea that this case follows the JFK / 7/7 etc model and that these guys are patsies. I would be willing to bet that the exquisite architecture had little to do with it, but that they were there to pick up a tidbit from a dead-letter box, probably difficult to access while there was ice and slush about, hence their return the next day. If they'd been on an assassination job, there's no way that they would have been so casual - but a pickup from 3rd green wheelie-bin from the gatepost somewhere in Salisbury didn't need them to be that cagey.

There you have my thoughts for now. Enjoy and remember that YMMV.

76 comments

My assumption is that "fancy bear" is an alleged group, one that theoretically exists.

The best speculation I've read regarding "fancy bear" claims that they are actually Crowdstrike, just using v7 tools to appear to be from Russia.

What else has crowdstrike done? They had a hand in the "dossier" and the "russia collusion narrative", and they were the ones who pointed at NK for having "hacked" the Sony emails... around the time of that garbo movie "The Interview"...

Yes, FBI, we have evidence which proves it was Russia. No! You're only allowed to see what we give you.

You're only allowed to see what we give you.

That will always be true, of anyone. Ever.

Send me your passport photo and home address please, I don't believe you exist. Or am I only allowed to see "what you give me".

It's a ongoing investigation. It's standart practice to not release al evidence. That would be naive.

/u/jampax84 hasn't deleted their account or all of their comments.

What?

Oh, right, some tankie apologist posting about me. Cool!

Idk the dude obviously remembers you for not eating his Russian propoganda.

Yeah, I think its a form of very strange thinking. He's been saying "its fake and not russia" for probably 6 months I imagine.

Then as his position becomes more and more absurd as the Russian state denies everything, as per usual, he looks at the mounting real physical evidence and needs to justify his conspiracy. So he types up a treatise on how it was indeed russians, but they were "patsies" who were in fact there to visit a wheelie bin, but couldn't manage the "slush".

He says his new theory with just as much authority and confidence as his previous 25 theories, i.e. its fake, it was mi6, the photos of them at gatwick are fake, no russians were there, novichok isn't real, wasn't it near porton down? fishy! etc.

This is probably his final position because its so vague it can't be disproven because its just a made up nonsense, there's no further position to take and it will probably be the final one.

I love the "they're so smart they hacked us, but we hacked them to watch them do it so we know it was them"-theory.

Most of you have no idea how the internet works and build your theories on assumptions that industries are much more "enterprise" and "by the book".

Where as you of course using intuition alone have determined the intelligence apparatus of the most well developed coutires on earth is wrong and you're right because... Reasons.

Where as you of course using intuition alone have determined the intelligence apparatus of the most well developed coutires on earth is wrong and you're right because... Reasons.

If anyone "normal", i.e. a normal president had said:

"Ive never met putin"

Then

"Ive met putin, I have a relationship with him"

Then

"I have no business in russia. No deals. No loans."

Then his son said

"We see a lot of money pouring in from russia"

And sell 1/3 of his trump world tower, to russian oligarchs.

And on, and on, and on, forever.

They would go absolutely crazy about that conspiracy.

But yet here it is, a huge conspiracy, right in front of them, but they actually don't like it. Because.....I have no idea.

Perhaps because Trump himself is a conspiracy theorist and is friends with Alex jones, so they can't attack one of their own?

Kind of like when you see two conspiracy theorists saying things that both can't be true, but they don't actually disagree with each other and just tip toe around each other respectfully.

Its because the conspiracy community has been weaponized by the people behind trump, so they work to shut that down, and use conspiracy theories against their political rivals.

They make up the conspiracy, have their public candidates amplify them, then report on the candidates amplification in the most obvious astroturfy propaganda campaign I can imagine. If people cant see it, it is either because they are complicit, willfully blind, or so lost in tribal partisanship that they would believe anything their guy says and disbelieve anything they deny, regardless of evidence

I think its an effort to make it so people don't believe anything, anything can be true, truth isn't even real. Its actually an attack on people's mental health and removing them from objective reality.

Its why Russia Today's slogan is 'question more', i.e. "Nothing is true, everyone is corrupt, everyone lies, believe nothing'.

Well thats been well documented as the firehose of falsehood method of propaganda. False narratives can be run out much faster than narratives based on evidence. Hit every story, hit them often, and include your ideological bent. If theyre proved wrong its fine, in fact, ignore it and keep pushing it. The truth has to be parsed from a sea of bullshit.

The fact that people believe what they want to believe (not what has the most evidence or makes the most logical sense) for the most part makes this very effective

WTF kind of logic is this

they're so smart they hacked us, but we hacked them to watch them do it so we know it was them

Its a brain on Alex Jones' brainForce XL.

Oh right, this loon is writing an entire thread on r/conspiracy about me. Awesome - Im not going to read it, sorry!

I delete my comments every now and again because I value privacy, you should too, you're probably paranoid enough if you post in r/conspiracy and save my account to write about me.

You are a tankie btw and a fellow traveller useful idiot, knee jerk supporter of the kremlin, purely because they are "anti west", and "against western hyporcrisy", therefore you love them and their lies tickle your prejudices just right.

lemme guess: you are Israeli?

Lay off the Alex jones brain juice dude, it'll turn the frogs gay

I delete my comments every now and again because I value privacy, you should too,

and you want me to "Lay off the Alex jones brain juice" ?? :D

newsflash: your reddit accounts are anonymous ;)

anyway... you didn't answer the question: ARE YOU ISRAELI?

The Jews are coming for you

You should buy more brainforce XL to protect yourself from the Jew mind control rays - only $99

There are plenty of Jews in Russia.

Not so many Zionists in Russia.

Judaism != Zionism.

Learn the difference.

I am asking you... if you are a zionist Israeli.

Your silence is deafening.

/enough said.

Insane, deranged

Dude, you went completely ad hominem again.

Engage in some argument. Refute some points. Provide alternative hypotheses. Name calling helps no-one.

No thanks, the guy saved my username and wrote about me months later. Its weird.

My comments are a summary of that "useful idiot" in my view isn't necessarily ad hominem but don't care too much.

I mean the guy looks like he was personally attacked and stalked, which is supposed to be against the rules here?

I mean the guy looks like he was personally attacked and stalked

True. I was simply pointing out that he really should think about improving his debating technique.

This isn't a "debate". There is nothing I can say.

This person has decided the way things should be and invents fake victimhood and ridiculous evidence free "theories" about how its probably two guys picking up a "tidbit" from a wheelie bin. Why that? I have no idea, thats just something he made up.

What is a tankie

What used to be known as a far left apologist for soviet gulags, purely because they weren't "Western imperialism", so they supported them and only focused on the crimes of the evil west.

Today, they are conspiracy theory loons who have a natural scepticism and possibly hatred/obsession with the "establishment" or just "the west" or whatever, so they support anyone and anything in opposition to that. In this case, the KGB killers in the Kremlin.

Oh. Very apt.

The Bellingcat info on the two GRU suspects is so detailed that I can only think it true. They were indeed in Salisbury; what with CCTV etc., there can be little doubt. But I have an idea that this case follows the JFK / 7/7 etc model and that these guys are patsies. I would be willing to bet that the exquisite architecture had little to do with it, but that they were there to pick up a tidbit from a dead-letter box, probably difficult to access while there was ice and slush about, hence their return the next day. If they'd been on an assassination job, there's no way that they would have been so casual - but a pickup from 3rd green wheelie-bin from the gatepost somewhere in Salisbury didn't need them to be that cagey.

Oh my god, I succumbed and read the last paragraph as I assumed you'd use this one to twist around the "ok, it may be true...but!" thing.

haha! What absurd nonsense. It actually appears to be deranged.

You read the evidence, and now you've gone from "it was theresa May in league with Ukraine , canada, the NHS and Germany".

To....

"Ive decided they are real now (forget I said they were fake before), but I know that they were there to pick up a 'tidbit' from a dead-letter box. But it was probably difficult! Because of "ice". They were there to visit a wheelie-bin"

Brilliant! How lovely of you to come along. I still don't get all of your references, but I assume they mean something to you.

NHS? I don't know if I should ask.

Deranged

Deranged

"it was theresa May in league with Ukraine , canada, the NHS and Germany". lmao, you did that all yourself! It's like I play Mentos to your Coke, beautiful.

"" Let’s start at the end and then let’s up the stakes again. The Russian Fancy Bear Hackers everyone is looking for are Ukrainian nationalists in Ukraine and the USA. That’s why no one can seem to find the little Ruskies anywhere. [Yeah, I know, shocker. I’m channeling Babchenko on this one.] ""

He's getting about 60/40 confidence from me atm, but maybe a little bit too glib. It might be that Fancy Bear belong to neither side in the Ukraine / Russia playoff. We must have doubt, as always.

So weird how in your world the Russians never did anything

Youre so absolutely consistent on this point.

You misunderstand. In reality, where I live, nobody has proven that russians did anything.

And when you couple that with the various inconsistencies with everything, it makes the whole situation seem bogus.

Hillary's people reportedly pulled an all nighter in which they planned a PR campaign which focused on alleged russian hacking. They used their media contacts to put it out.

The FBI, former employer of Comey, McCabe, and Strzok apparently leaked the Carter Page FISA story to aid this process and make people think there was a legitimate russian concern.

The Dossier is right in there too. Literal evidence of trump opponents getting dirt on Trump from russians. Oh, and their source was cut off from the FBI so they had to launder the information back in to the FBI.

I'm sure I could go on to further examples that cast serious doubt on the entire story, but those are some pretty big ones I highly doubt you or anybody else could attempt to refute.

Well, they might have known about the hacking because she was secretary of state, and obama and trump were both briefed on it, but told not to do anything for political reasons by Mitch McConnell

So im not surprised they wanted to air that out now that they were allowed to by fucking politicians

"Cast serious doubt"

"We can never be sure"

"What about Iraq?"

"It could be anyone"

These are the stock phrases we get to when they can no longer deny reality, but they just have to say "we don't know. There's no truth. Its very fishy and probably fake and definitely 100% not Russia. But we don't know. We can never know (it wasn't Russia)."

Yeah very identifiable language. Almost like its handed out in an all hands memo

The interesting wrinkle is why are these users allowed to stick around, even after multiple rules violations that have gotten multitudes of others banned? The possibility of a mod being part of an org like that is quite the

conspiracy

That whole off-guardian article is pretty interesting.

There's a lot in it and I'd like to know a bit more about the author and his sources, although I trust some of the named actors in his tale, like ESET. That RUH8 quote is fierce!

Funny - for a possibly quite deranged person who suspects that all iOS not as it seems and evidence must ALWAYS be fake and a lie. You have absolutely no scepticism at all about the author, his sources, you have no idea who he is and say so.

Yet you think he's "fierce!"

I'm not convinced that you have any reading comprehension at all. Are you a bot?

Vague, deranged. Type more posts about the "wheelie bin" theory. Its fascinatingly stupid, and made up.

We know without a shadow of a doubt that Alex Jones is Russian intelligence, the only thing uncertain is how far that gopher hole leads: straight to Moscow or via Trump Tower first.

Personally I think Alex jones hierarchy of priorities goes:

  1. Money first, always
  2. Money
  3. More money
  4. The desire to annoy, provoke, cause chaos and get attention
  5. Right wing ideas
  6. Trump, kinda?
  7. Russia - if they pay him money and help him

Bellingcat by the way is owned by the Atlantic Council, and is also funded by Google
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/about/experts/list/eliot-higgins

r/https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/661799515788345344

Bellingcat also claims to use these tools for their "open source investigations", to prove us crazy 'conspiracy theorists' wrong.

r/https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/895734898647945220

Its not "owned" by the Atlantic council.

Funny that you don't like any conspiracy theories about Trump, Russia, actual murderous kleptocrats who are killing people in a giant conspiracy, being exposed with actual evidence, You hate those conspiracies.

You all seem to prefer rambling denials and vague associations (funded by google!).

Who said I don't like conspiracy theories about those topics? I just stick to the factual conspiracies, like the fact that The Atlantic Council and Google own Eliot's ass. FFS you are denying that Eliot himself Tweeted "Currently Google is funding Bellingcat for the next year", what is so vague about that? Lmao! Go sit on Eliot's nuts, shill.

Who said I don't like conspiracy theories about those topics?

Me, I guarantee it.

Putin had involvement in the apartment bombing attempts in the 90's. Trump hires a bunch of retarded neocons. Also Eliot Higgings' ass is OWNED by the Atlantic Council, and admits he is funded by Google. Eat it. :D

Putin had involvement in the apartment bombing attempts in the 90's

They weren't "attempts" but congrats. He is certainly funded by google, he says it out loud, he also has his photo on the Atlantic council website, excellent detective work! He can't hide it any more.

Amazing what I can do in 30 seconds huh? Meanwhile you kept denying he was funded by Google, and that his ass is owned by the Atlantic Council. Now you admit it though, excellent work on your self-honesty! You can't hide it anymore. Good job brotha.

Meanwhile you kept denying he was funded by Google, and that his ass is owned by the Atlantic Council.

No I didn't, but I imagine to be a conspiracy loon you have to keep "exposing" people and "finding out da truth". He's not "owned" by the Atlantic council.

Yes you did deny it, you said "You all seem to prefer rambling denials and vague associations (funded by google!)".

What's so vague about his cash-branded mug being on the Atlantic Council's website, and him admitting to Google also owning him. And yeah, I expose shills like your hero. You don't like it? Too bad.

Like I said, you didn’t expose anything, his picture is on the site. He announced his google funding. But for conspiracy loons you have to feel like you’ve uncovered something, because you’re unhinges.

Which shows how retarded you are cause you were denying that in the first place! Lmao!! Guess you should tell the same thing to your sugar daddy Eliot, cause he brags that he finds 'publicly available information', which for some reason makes you wet your panties when it comes from him.

Also I love how you are freaking out over supposed 'kek fascists'! Oh no they will take over the world!! All 5 of em! Put your tinfoil suit on you conspiracy loon. Lmao!!!

No, you seem to have changed the meaning of “owner” and “exposed”, because... whatever. Arguing with a conspiracy theorist is intentionally stupid.

Keep crying fanboy, I showed people that otherwise didn't know, that Bellingcat is a propaganda lapdog for the Atlantic Council and Google. Eliot's ass is OWNED by them, and there is nothing you can do about it.

"Conspiracy theorist"? Says the dude that believes and agrees with me that Putin was involved in the Apartment Bombings? That makes you a conspiracy theorist too, you know? :D

Also you are shaking like a leaf cause you think 'kek fascists' are an actual threat to the world? All 5 of em? Man, i might be a "conspiracy theorist', but you are a delusional clown! Lmao!!

Maybe you’re a fascist that’s been red pilled I dunno - don’t shoot up any schools or pizza restaurants

Maybe fascist Eliot Higgins will end up doing that, while you ride his fascist fake news nuts.

The ones who say they want a final solution for the Jewish question, you mean them

That’s an actual conspiracy, but you don’t like that one

Sorry I stick to the real shit. Meanwhile you are freaking out over 5 random 4chan trolls trying to scare your dumb ass into believing they got some imaginary army behind them. HAHAHA! You and Eliot are hallucinating, you scared little men! 4chan Nazi hordes everywhere! Oh no!!! Hahahaha!!! What fake conspiracy theory will Bellingcat come up with next? Pokemon: The Facist/Russian agenda?

Now you sound unhinged and insane - not surprising.

Unhinged, and insane? Maybe I'll start a website called Bellingcat.

That was quite lame.

Yeah Bellingcat is quite lame.

Cringeworthy.

Exactly.

Anyone with a clue of IT security who read the joint intelligence report, knows the association of the DNC email "hack" with Fancy Bear or other groups was just empty handwavey bullshit. It could just as easily be anyone in the world, even some 16 year old kid in his mom's basement, but it could be this one group of hackers, who could be possibly related to Russia!

“It could be anyone! Maybe it was Mongolia! You can never know the truth”

  • the kremlin

“It could be anyone! Maybe it was Mongolia! You can never know the truth”

IT Security analysts. Vault 7 changed that game.

Lay off the Alex jones brain juice dude, it'll turn the frogs gay

He's getting about 60/40 confidence from me atm, but maybe a little bit too glib. It might be that Fancy Bear belong to neither side in the Ukraine / Russia playoff. We must have doubt, as always.

So weird how in your world the Russians never did anything

Youre so absolutely consistent on this point.

This isn't a "debate". There is nothing I can say.

This person has decided the way things should be and invents fake victimhood and ridiculous evidence free "theories" about how its probably two guys picking up a "tidbit" from a wheelie bin. Why that? I have no idea, thats just something he made up.

Putin had involvement in the apartment bombing attempts in the 90's

They weren't "attempts" but congrats. He is certainly funded by google, he says it out loud, he also has his photo on the Atlantic council website, excellent detective work! He can't hide it any more.