Anyone has a theory on when first contact will happen?

19  2012-04-10 by [deleted]

Please be as specific as possible.

67 comments

Already happened.

Ha, I came here to say this. There are plenty of reports that are starting to surface and be disclosed from years past. OP, look in to the "Friendship Case" from the 1950's.

Please be as specific as possible.

Elaborate, I'm actually interested.

[deleted]

I always thought of first contact as we come in peace in harmony then you grow up and just thinking about it realize its more like "They Live". why come in peace... what is gained in peace,why not infiltrate and steal. A they come in peace ending is just like a disney ending makes you feel all warm and gooey but in the real world just doesnt happen.... no has anyone seen my tinfoil hat.

No. Absolutely no chance.

Can't tell if sarcastic or a troll?

No I am giving you an educated opinion.

Google "fermi's paradox".

absence of evidence does not equate to evidence of absence....

logicalfallacy.jpg

Of course not. This is fairly sensible logic; I don't offer evidence of other. You decide for yourself. The argument stands, and if you thing it doesn't apply, then by all means.

The argument goes like this - Humans (or any reasonably and plausible equivalent) should statistically be able to enter space travel in the next century. Let's say we have 75% that by 2100 we have 'extensive' and permanent settlements in the near solar system. Once we do we'll keep on expanding, even if we had become stuck at 1950s technology. Space is not a plush environment, but with sufficient material resources we can bootstrap gradual and unimpeded expansion in colonization there. I'd say that in a few centuries human (or its descendant posthumans) would have permanent (and fairly affluent) colonies on or near all planets, on or near all moons, and on probably several hundred asteroids. This would not stop. By 2500, or not much later, we would start making interstellar jumps - not all the way to alpha centauri in one leap, but from KBO to KBO making incremental progress towards any nearby stars. Now let's assume technology does not progress fast, and we stay mostly an organic species (all very pessimist projections) and we travel really slow. Now with the above progress "slow" means a travel rate of an average light year per 100 years. That means that most nearby stars will come under human descendant colonization efforts, a gradually expanding cloud of very big industrial structures - we are talking cities in space, moonlets covered with sprawling industries, deconstruction efforts and mining of asteroids. This would spread as a tidal wave of change throughout the galaxy.

Now if humans wouldn't do this, someone else would. You tend to notice the ones that make the most noise, not the subtle or humble. So if one or ten or 90% of all intelligent, tool using species would somehow opt out of "noisome" galactic colonization, others would take their place and still do so.

This would spread all over the galaxy is just a few million years, and not subtly so - you'd really see like a blazing wavefront of industrial activity. Such progress, based on material premises we know about, would be extremely obvious, even thousands of light years away. Industrial interstellar societies would be very noisy, and very messy.

Yet we see nothing. This is at odds with what we can reasonably expect from humanity. Now there may very well be all kinds of hidden surprises and unexpected variables, but we can't say much about that which we don't know. So these are the facts and the extrapolations based on current understanding.

If there has been a technologically advanced intelligence in the galaxy in the last few billion years, we should see signs of them, clear and unambiguous signs. Logically there should have been many such civilizations. Yet for some reason we only see emptiness and silence.

Fantasy island stuff, clearly.

I too believe it has already happen. I don't have 'credible sources' or anything like that, but growing up I stumbled about the whole Extraterrestrial section of the internet and would show my Grandfather the stuff I was reading. He would smile, nod, and walk away. I came upon the 'Paper Moon' theory, and reading reports both for and against it, I showed my Grandfather these sites and he got stone faced and said "We went to the Moon, trust me. Go back to reading the other stuff you were showing me, it has more truth than you would think." I had never seen this man that serious before in my life. He was in the Air Force for 23 years. I have no idea what he did in there, he refuses to talk about it. The most I ever got out of him was when I had enlisted Army a year ago and he told me about Vietnam and how he did E.O.D. until the war was over but 'That wasn't all I did.'

Just my story. Thought I'd share.

I believe that we went to the moon, no doubt. But, I think that there was something up there; a building, a message, something of great knowledge.

Maybe Extraterrestrials telling us to not go there anymore, that the Moon is 'their' territory? That was around the general conclusion that people had came up with if I remember correctly. It's been years since I've researched anything related to the topic.

"Dear Earthlings, please stay on your full of resources living, breathing planet and please don't touch our rock with an awesome view"

Alien Heisenburgh?

You now have to tell us what stuff he approved of you reading.

I showed him alot of articles/books written by Jim Marrs, and he seemed excited when I was reading The Day After Roswell by Col. Corso. Hard to tell, I'm talking about a man who showed 0 emotion 99% of the time.

Side Note :: I don't think he has had any connection with Roswell directly, he was never stationed at any of the bases involved with the incident.

The universe is just so big and so old it seems that for two civilizations to exist at the same time and be close enough to each other to contact each other would be incredibly unlikely to ever happen.We can always hope.

what if they the aliens are not really aliens, think, we evolved in less time then the dinosaurs, and they had lived on the earth for millions of years, who to say they didnt evolve into a more advanced race different from ours, fossilization is rare, what are the chances that evolution would produce the same layout for life from two different planets? greys and greens are not from space, there from earth, them having arms and legs and being similar to humans in layout proves they evolved from earth and not some distant planet were evolution would NOT have fallowed the same path as earth. they will want there planet back .

You're right. It's extremely unlikely to happen in the universe as we know it. Maybe at some point interdimensional travel will bring solace.

Though, the universe being infinite or near infinite, I wouldn't be surprised to find that alien cultures have communicated in the past.

I would be very surprised to ever find out anything factual about aliens.

Well, of course, but that's not how I meant it.

I have no doubt we've made first contact. I just see the social aspect being the hangup with them coming out.

I remember watching Alien Nation the series as a kid and can't help but think that if we as a world are still hung up on racial divides (think Treyvon Martin), it won't get any better for them to reveal themselves.

We have a tough enough time already with bigots in this world, we don't need Chicken Littles like Glenn Beck to make things worse for when they do come.

The time we all get along and live peacefully, I say they should be revealed.

65 years ago.

Suppressed tech or extraterrestrial tech question has not been answered.

One thing is for sure, and that would be that we don't wish to be manipulated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDvh3zyBqLk&t=9m

If it happens, this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal will be the limit of communication.

You don't come around here much do you. :)

It would appear to me that contact happened long ago, and the human species and earth have been under occupation for a long time.

Just thought I'd bring this up: how come nobody ever talks about the possibility of US being the ones to make first contact with a less intelligent species? I imagine a planet being discovered with no intelligence but teeming with all sorts of animal like creatures. Or possibly a race as intelligent as humans but lacking thumbs or hands to build things with, so it's just a species that has knowledge of things and stories to tell but no tools or technology. /rant

Thousands of years ago.

Already happened, in my opinion. I think a better question is:

When will there be public disclosure?

It would be dangerous to assume that any race is automatically "friendly" or "hostile."

Setting aside all the UFO/contactee subculture, I think a major, global 'contact' event will happen just as I expect a major, EE asteroid will: suddenly. No warning even for governments to act upon. A real surprise that will take us with our pants down.

And, as much as I'd like it not to be so, I doubt they will come in peace.

I'm sorry but I don't buy the whole notion that aliens would come to attack earth. If they are intelligent enough to travel through space why the hell would they come to our small planet for "resources" when they could just stop off at any other rock made of resources. The universe is fucking huge.

What are you trying yo imply?

That 'intelligence' doesn't grant benevolence. That if most of the time we can't know other humans' intentions, what chance we have with aliens?

Plus, we always seem to take for granted First Contact will be with a diplomatic mission from another civilization. I wonder if the alien equivalent of an Academi mercenary platoon happened to stumble here, would they behave 'intelligently', rationally and decently?

I didn't get that feel from your image, thanks for clarifying.

Consider this... there are two possibilities if we were to find life on another planet... it would either be less sophisticated (think anything from chimpanzees to bacteria, although this is just an example and anything found on another planet would likely not come close to either) or more complicated (think anything from humans to beings that have evolved past physical form).

What do you suppose we would do with less evolved species? My guess is that we would treat them similarly to how we treat less evolved species on this planet... either by imprisoning (through either natural - tigers that leave the jungle and come into the city get shot or artificial means - go into zoos) or outright exterminating them (think antibiotics). From this, human nature is revealed.

Apply this theory in the other direction... with us being the less evolved of the two. How do you suppose we would be regarded? Perhaps we are already in the zoo....

Well considering the fact that we are comparing these "invaders" to humans...Through human evolution we see society evolving along side it. The way we treated the Native Americans is by today's standards unacceptable. Also in recent years we have started to form movements to protect wildlife because our previous society had not taken nature into account while building the foundations for their factories and industry. And while we still have a long way to go with human rights as well as environmental preservation, we are still moving in the right direction. And we are very far off technologically speaking from being able to explore galaxies.

Is it easier to believe that a species advanced enough to create technology we cannot even fathom would act exactly how our ancestors did, or even how we still act today?

| The way we treated the Native Americans is by today's standards unacceptable.

People give it lip service, but I don't really believe for a second that if we, as American policy, wanted something that we wouldn't take it by force, damn the consequences for others (see: Iraq, etc...)

| in recent years we have started to form movements to protect wildlife because our previous society had not taken nature into account

No, they knew about nature, after all, they had been living in it since people have come to this country, they just didn't care. Once again, environmentalism (even basic things like clean air and water) is given lip service and if it comes at additional cost for the bottom line, the people in power are not interested.

| Is it easier to believe that a species advanced enough to create technology we cannot even fathom would act exactly how our ancestors did, or even how we still act today?

I'm just suggesting that while we have a nice coat of paint (or 50) to pass ourselves off as reasonable and fair human beings, the truth is that the base level of survival instincts has not changed much. In fact, paranoia and mistrust of others (while coming in waves) is at the highest point that I have seen it in my life.

Right......NOW! as in fact, I am an alien

Right in the middle of WW3 to come help man save him from himself. It will have serious implications on all religions. We will then be spoon fed our true history and reason for existence. Unite us all under a one word religion,economic system and governmental control. All this after most of us starve to death do to the lack of food. A say sometime later this year.

Next Tuesday

In ancient Egypt?

We're not in anyone's smart light cone.

Are you kidding me? What would an intelligent life form want to do with us? We'd most certainly call the police on them, arrest them, or just kill them on sight. We kill our own people for no good reason, so we are certainly not going to have a civil and intelligent conversation with aliens. Are we interested in speaking to monkeys?

"Arrest" ? Intelligent tool using life that arrived would probably arrive with space ships bigger than mountains, and technology more advanced to us than we are advanced to lemurs. Seriously. They'd record us on some backup disk and we wouldn't even notice.

...now wait.

"They'd record us on some backup disk and we wouldn't even notice."

This is awesome.

Not that I disagree with you on any of that necessarily, but yes, I think we ARE interested in speaking to monkeys.

Here's a short story I rather like on a related subject, explaining why, perhaps, no aliens want to talk to us.

[deleted]

Dolphins too

In a couple of millenia, provided we move in to space. Then as we start travelling we stumble over something 'dormant' a few hundred or thousand light years away. If there's active intelligence it spreads, in just a few million years everywhere. The galaxy is thousand times as old, so do the math. My bet is there won't be much in this galaxy that evolves to spread.

Nothing ever visited Earth. We'd really know. Obvious as hell.

Explain Puma Punku

[deleted]

Have you considered that it is extremely likely that there are civilizations out there that have thousands of years on us? It is also likely that there are those that have millions. While inter-stellar travel may seem an impossibility from our stand point. I don't think it is impossible. This always bugs the shit outa me when peoria think of et's from our viewpoint.

I've never been to Kansas, but I hear it's nice.

Edit- Or were you talking about Illinois?

I recommend reading Leslie Kean's book about UFOs

OK, I'll keep my eyes open for it. I've read quite a bit about UFOs over the years. It's never been a main interest of mine but I haven't dismissed the subject, either. My general conclusion is that UFO aliens are non-physical manifestations, similar in nature to fairies or angels. Perhaps they are projections, or perhaps they are trans-dimensional. I don't believe they are physical, even though they seem completely physical to those who have encountered them.

I have the .mobi if you have an ereader. It's about 75% eyewitness and government official accounts. Bottom line is that most other countries have an open policy regarding UFOs and have some stellar evidence but the US won't participate or share with anyone else.

oh, and the CIA set out to get the american citizens to change their opinion about UFOs in the 50s (turn them from a cause of concern to one of mockery) via the The Robertson Panel

Like in modern times night "visitors" have taken on alien/ET forms instead of the succubus and incubus of past times?

I completely agree with you...Ive seen stuff that are not of this world and I can honestly say that we live in a multidimensional universe. Which is why string theory seems to ring true with me...

I'm not saying it was the Reapers...

Therefore... ?

It's Reapers!!!

Not that I disagree with you on any of that necessarily, but yes, I think we ARE interested in speaking to monkeys.

"Arrest" ? Intelligent tool using life that arrived would probably arrive with space ships bigger than mountains, and technology more advanced to us than we are advanced to lemurs. Seriously. They'd record us on some backup disk and we wouldn't even notice.

...now wait.

Here's a short story I rather like on a related subject, explaining why, perhaps, no aliens want to talk to us.

I believe that we went to the moon, no doubt. But, I think that there was something up there; a building, a message, something of great knowledge.

You now have to tell us what stuff he approved of you reading.

That 'intelligence' doesn't grant benevolence. That if most of the time we can't know other humans' intentions, what chance we have with aliens?

Plus, we always seem to take for granted First Contact will be with a diplomatic mission from another civilization. I wonder if the alien equivalent of an Academi mercenary platoon happened to stumble here, would they behave 'intelligently', rationally and decently?